Oscars 2017- Nominee predictions

Edit: this blog post has now been edited with green highlights showing where my predictions were correct and red highlights showing where I was wrong. There's also a tally of how many predictions I got correct at the end.

It's the time of year when old white dudes usually tell us what films to like, only this year, apparently some of them haven't retired, aren't the colour of a milky bar and don't have wangs. Whether that changes the type of films that get nominated remains to be seen (at least until this time next week) but as a film blog, it's always fun to report on so I'm just going to predict the films that will get nominated from a list I have largely seen none of because I have to make Oscars themed content. And to clarify, for each category (apart from Best Picture because that gets more nominees) I'll list three films I think will get nominated, as well as a slightly riskier choice. So let's begin!



Best Animated Feature
Safe Bets:
Finding Dory 
Zootopia   
Moana  

Risky Choice:
The Little Prince

We've had an amazing year for animation this year and although none of the films this year reached the heights of either Anomalisa or Inside Out last year, there have been a wider array of great animated movies. Of course, Disney seem certain to make a big mark this year with two of the greatest films they've made since the turn of the millennium. Zootopia was an incredibly fun ride that was superbly animated but also managed to make time to address important social issues. Moana was a musical and princess film but surpassed both those labels to be one of the purest and most easily enjoyable films of the year. Personally, Finding Dory wasn't my favourite but $1 billion doesn't lie and the Academy love to recognise Pixar. Now, I would personally love for The Little Prince to get recognised but I don't think it will because most mainstream awards are terrified of streaming services of Netflix, a real shame considering how beautiful it is.



Best Cinematography
Safe Bets:
Nocturnal Animals
Arrival
La La Land

Risky Choice:
Midnight Special

For me, cinematography is one of the more interesting categories in any award show. Typically, the various award boards like to pick the prettiest films and that's fun but it's important to consider the actual impact the framing of each shot has on the story. Nocturnal Animals manages to fit both of those boxes, something that shouldn't surprise as beauty and an eye for detail are to be expected with a fashion designer as director. While Nocturnal Animals would be a difficult film for many other nominations, it is beautiful and for it to be ignored would be foolish. Arrival fits into pretty much only the second box in that it is very practically directed, but in a way that still looks great. Each shot is constructed to add to the meaning of the film and frankly, Arrival deserves as many nominations as it can get. The most obvious nomination is La La Land. Not only is it going to get nominations for just about everything, it genuinely does look stunning. It captures the world of LA in such majesty that each single frame could be taken and framed. This is a film that gave me goosebumps just from the visuals and it's comforting that it will be rewarded for that. Finally, my riskier pick here probably isn't going to get nominated at all, it's Midnight Special. Personally, I think it is one of the greatest looking films in years but due to Jeff Nichol's other film Loving coming out as well and garnering much buzz, it will be sadly ignored. If you haven't seen it though, please check it out.


Best Director
Safe Bets:
Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea

Risky Choice:
David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water

One of the harder categories to judge for Oscar voters, this category basically just gets filled with all the films that get nominated for Best Picture. With that in mind but also considering what I know as a film student about directors, I think I have a safe list. First, La La Land director Damien Chazelle. Literally no way this nomination won't happen, critics and awards shows adore this film. Next, Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. It's a film that has been earning rave reviews and apparently all due to the directing talent of Jenkins, who knows just when to show what and for how long. My final safe pick is Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea. I feel bad because this film is getting largely ignored for La La Land but it's a deeply touching one and one directed with restraint by Lonergan. As long as Manchester actually gets a Best Picture nomination, this is safe. The risky choice I made is more wishful thinking than anything, David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water. It was my favourite film of last year and Mackenzie knows how to direct the hell out of a script that fizzles with electric magic and actors who can give knockout performances. Sadly, he will probably be overlooked here, as in most other categories.


Best Supporting Actress
Safe Bets:
Viola Davis for Fences
Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris for Moonlight

Risky Choice:
Felicity Jones for A Monster Calls

Now we're getting interesting. I have seen very few performances that are getting nominated here but there do seem to be some really strong ones in there. There's Viola Davis in Fences, a film that seems to have gotten buzz basically just for giving her and director Denzel Washington a chance to have some great monologues. Plus, not to be cynical but the #oscarssowhite controversy of last year should help her tremendously. In a similar boat, Naomie Harris has apparently given a career best performance in Moonlight. Again, this isn't to boil down her performance to just skin colour and statistics, as a crack addict and very troubled woman she is apparently amazing. To get to a performance I have actually seen, there will probably be a nomination for Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea. She is one of two standout performances in the film and while saying she's a delight would be misleading, she is incredible to watch on screen. If she doesn't at least get nominated, it will be a travesty. One performance that deserves to be nominated but likely won't be nominated is Felicity Jones for A Monster Calls. The film probably is going to be ignored in all aspects but Felicity Jones is incredible and I would love the film to get as many nominations as possible.


Best Supporting Actor
Safe Bets:
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
Alan Rickman for Eye in the Sky

Risky Choice:
Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals

I often feel like the supporting acting categories contain some of the more understated but best performances of all the contenders. No, I haven't seen many of this year's ones but the ones I have seen certainly fit the trend. Moonlight has been basically the awards darling this year and one of the things, among many, that it's been praised for is House of Cards actor Mahershala Ali. If his performance is nearly as good as it is in House of Cards, his performance will be great. Alan Rickman, in one of his last roles, starred in Eye in the Sky and I haven't seen it either but it's apparently great and the Academy may not be able to resist a posthumous nomination for one of the greats. Now, I did see Hell or High Water and I love it to pieces. To see Chris Pine or Ben Foster get nominated would be wonderful but Jeff Bridges gives the flashier performance and will probably get the nomination. Finally, the highlight of Nocturnal Animals, Michael Shannon deserves to be nominated. He was a terrifying edge to the creepier side of the story and in a year when he also did Midnight Special, this was his best performance. Unfortunately, I feel like the film will be ignored overall because it's quite difficult and very "arty", turning many off, plus nominations from rival supporting actor Aaron Taylor Johnson may muddle the chances of them both.


Best Actress
Safe Bets:
Amy Adams for Arrival/Nocturnal Animals
Emma Stone for La La Land
Natalie Portman for Jackie

Risky Choice:
Isabelle Hupert for Elle

This is a weird category this year as, going in, there were about five different actresses who were "guaranteed to win" this award and slowly, everyone has come to the realisation that only one of them can actually win. Usually, the Oscars like to nominate a few people for the first time but I haven't got anyone like that here. Regular Oscar bridesmaid-never-the-bride Amy Adams should get a nomination, either for her wonderful work in Arrival or her chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals. Whatever the nomination, don't expect a win though. Emma Stone will be riding into the station of Oscar-ville on the back of the La La Land train, although that shouldn't downplay the fact that she is legitimately great in the film. Natalie Portman returns to the awards circuit in her performance showcase Jackie, a film I haven't seen yet. From what I've heard though, she gives a performance as great as her one in Black Swan, the film that won her the Oscar all those years ago, plus the Academy adore her so a nomination seems on the cards. The risky choice here has gotten more likely since the Golden Globes as it's the winner of that award, Isabelle Hupert. She stars in Elle, a French revenge rape thriller by the director of Robocop and if there's one thing the Academy hate more than Robocop, it's foreign films in major categories. Despite that, if they can get past the initial discomfort (within ten seconds of the trailer starting, half of the audience for a Martin Scorcese film no less, had voiced their massive disinterest in the film) they will be making a progressive and probably great choice.


Best Actor
Safe Bets:
Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Denzel Washington for Fences

Risky Choice:
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic

This category could be one of the harder choices of the night, especially if my predictions all get nominated. First, as mentioned in the Supporting Actress category, Fences was made to get acting awards and Denzel stands a great chance of a nomination, even if a win may be unlikely. The two actors who will probably be going head to head though are ones from films I've actually seen and are both coming off Golden Globes wins. The first is for the much lighter role, Ryan Gosling in La La Land. Personally, I wouldn't describe this performance as Best Actor worthy but he is a superb presence on screen, plus, you know, La La Land. In my opinion, the performance that really should get the win is Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. He is raw and emotional and finally steps out of the shadow of big brother Ben in a role that heightens an already powerful film. A role I would love to see nominated though is Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic. It's a film that has been criminally ignored and while I would like more things to get nominated from the film, I'll be happy with only Aragorn himself becoming an Oscar nominee.


Best Picture
Safe Bets:
Hacksaw Ridge
Fences
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea

Risky Choices:
A Monster Calls
I, Daniel Blake
Arrival

Here we are, the biggie. There are a few safe bets and some films that I think could or at least should get nominated. Due to the funny way the Oscars work, there could be between 5 and 10 nominations for best picture so I have predicted more films here than other categories and will try to run through them quickly. Hacksaw Ridge, the return of a beloved director who is less anit-semitic now and a film that is very religious indeed. Fences is powerful, a great actor showcase and one of two films trying to make #oscarssowhite fade into history. La La Land is the awards darling of the moment but deservedly so, it is the film on this list I have seen more than any other. Moonlight is the little indie darling that could and manages to discuss both homosexuality, poverty and race in the same film. The final safe bet is Manchester by the Sea, an emotional gut punch in the best way and one with some of the year's best performances. Then we get to the riskier picks, all of which I would love to get nominated but they are at risk for various reasons. A Monster Calls is utterly beautiful but has performed very poorly in America, meaning fewer voters will know what it is. I, Daniel Blake is possibly the most powerful film from last year needs every award it can get (the BAFTAs have fortunately helped with that) but British films rarely get this kind of recognition. Finally, Arrival was one of my two favourite films of last year and while Hell or High Water has slightly stronger odds, Arrival will likely be ignored as the Academy seem unable to either acknowledge Denis Villeneuve's work or award most genre films. Whatever films get nominated though, I think we're going to have one of the strongest nomination lists in years.


Correct "Safe" nominations: 22 out of 26
Correct "Risky" nominations: 4 out of 10