Oscars 2021 - Final Predictions

Oscar season is here, slightly delayed in happening because of the whole pandemic thing that we still live in, slightly delayed in me writing about because I have 10,000 words due in the next 7 days! Anyway, Oscars! Because of my aforementioned busyness I'm not covering as many categories as I did last year but we're going to at least cover the five biggest hitters. We're talking actors in lead and supporting roles and we're talking the best film. I've done my best to see as many of these as I can but time has a habit of getting away from me so I can't promise I'll have seen them all. Still, in this weirdest of weird years, we'll be trying to do the same as every year, predicting who will win as well as getting a couple of opinions in there about who deserves to win. Let's get into it right away, before I waste any more time working out how to write this intro!

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Should Win: Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah

Generally, this is one of the stronger categories from my perspective this year, with the actors chosen all coming from films with really strong ensembles. Personally, the weakest is Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago Seven. He plays a comedy character pretty much, which isn't necessarily a problem, but his silly accent and big wig feels at odds with a big serious important film that I didn't really care for. In a similar position is Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami. I'm not crazy on the film, but I can admit that the performances are the best part of it and I'm sure Odom is hoping this nomination will put the travesty that was Music behind him. That should be enough. The other three I love, and would be happy to see any of them win. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal probably doesn't stand much of a chance because he's a relatively unknown actor, but he's brilliant. His performance is so deeply empathetic in ways that open the emotional core of the film up to the audience and he deserves the world after this. Realistically though, it will come down to the two from Judas and the Black Messiah, who confusingly both play one of the titular characters, but their categorisation as supporting is a whole other issue. Anyway! Daniel Kaluuya has been doing great work for over a decade, only recently breaking out into America and it feels like this is "his moment". His powerful but fragile character is part of the reason the film works so well, the award is his to lose. However, I think Lakeith Stanfield might be a little better? I've been on board the Stanfield train ever since I saw Atlanta and after some great supporting roles in Knives Out and Uncut Gems, this is finally his time to shine. He is a character whose very nature is conflicted and torn through the entire runtime, and his eyes say things that most of the screenplays this year take their entire length to say. Him winning would cause a scream of delight that echoes across all of Exeter, so keep an ear out I guess.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win and Should Win: Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari

Annoyingly, I don't know if I'm crazy on any of the nominees in this category this year. It isn't that they're all bad by any means, but none of them are my favourite parts of films that are already not amongst my favourite films nominated. Anyway, we'll get Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy out of the way, that is a genuinely bad film in which she is not great. How she got nominated I'm not entirely sure, but here she is anyway. No offense to Close, but this is certainly not her finest hour. As for the other four, I think it's pretty close between them. Maria Bakalova is great in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm but there is an almost zero percent chance of her winning her. She's in a comedy, comedies don't win Oscars like this. Amanda Seyfried stands more of a chance for Mank, a role in which she does a funny little accent and plays an old actress. I liked her in it, but I wasn't blown away and she hasn't really won any awards for it this season. Olivia Colman in The Father stands more of a chance, because she is great. The problem is, weird as it sounds, she's always good. It doesn't stand out in her filmography because it's as good as the rest of her great performances. So that means my winner is Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari. I wish I liked Minari more than I do, but she's an undeniable stand out of the film. She's been picking up wins left and right at the moment, she has been charming at every moment and she also gives great speeches. So sure, give it to Youn, she will deserve it, we can all mourn the names like Olivia Cooke or Dominique Fishback who were snubbed.

Best Actor

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should Win: Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal

Half of this category is kind of boring and predictable, and the other half is really exciting, so let's get the boring out of the way. Gary Oldman is Mank and he's great, because he always is. It's not notably brilliant, but of course Gary Oldman gets nominated for an Oscar if he was in a prestige film this year. Similarly, Anthony Hopkins is The Father and his performance of an old man suffering from dementia is great. Water is wet, call me cynical, but it wore on me. I'm also feeling like Steven Yeun's performance in Minari is suffering because of his back catalogue. He is really charming and just the right level of questionably naïve in Minari, arguably holding the whole film together, so don't think I'm not glad he got nominated. However, compare his performance here to his one in Burning and you see so much more there. Everyone mentions it when they talk about the film, but Yeun says more with one yawn than most actors say in a career. Basically, go watch Burning, it's incredible. Back to the actual point of this paragraph though, I feel certain that Chadwick Boseman will win this award for his final performance, that being in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. I confess, I haven't seen the film, but I'm still confident in my prediction. It doesn't matter how good he is, he has been a hugely popular actor these past few years and after his untimely death, the Academy are sure to take a moment and finally honour in death an actor who they couldn't do the decency of awarding in life. In the hypothetical Henry Oscars (the Henries? something to think on), Riz Ahmed would absolutely clench the trophy for Sound of Metal. Sure, there's the immediately impressive angle of Ahmed having to play elements of Deafness, learning American Sign Language and the drums for the role, but he's also the beating heart of the film. You have to believe that Ruben is a man who doesn't believe what's happening to him, which I did every step of the way. I would love a victory for Ahmed, but a loss wouldn't be the end of the world because I feel certain he'll be returning to the ceremony before we know it with another incredible performance to add to his already impressive filmography.

Best Actress

Will Win and Should Win : Frances McDormand for Nomadland

I haven't seen many of the films that these nominees have been in, primarily because this year has once again followed the trend of Best Actress nominees rarely having their films nominated for both Best Actress and Best Picture. It's such a weird trend and there's probably something in there worth analysing about how the narratives of female pain are worth recognising for their women and not actually as films at large. Anyway, that's a conversation for a different day, let's talk about the nominees I haven't seen first! Apparently no one has seen The United States vs. Billie Holiday, but I'm sure Andra Day's work is strong. If you play someone pre-existing, an Oscar nomination is within reach, my cynicism of the film is strong. Vanessa Kirby fits the mould of up and coming actress, having already won awards for work in TV and starred in a few action movies, so she's being rewarded for stepping into the realm of the serious. If the first scene of Pieces of a Woman is anything near as rough as people are saying it is then sure, the nomination works with that narrative of a star being born. Final of my unknown quantities is Viola Davis for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. By this point, Davis is a regular at the Oscars and she could get nominated for absolutely anything. She's a great actress and if she was reading the phone book it would still probably be compelling. Getting to films I have seen, I love Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman. Even people who dislike the film can point to her as an integral part to everything that is great about the film and I think it's such a fun subversion of her usual type of role. She's fab, but having too much fun to win. So the winner is, deservedly, going to be Frances McDormand. I'm not crazy on Nomadland (we'll get to that in a minute) but the reason it works as much as it does for me is because of McDormand. She is one of the greatest working actresses right now, it's apparently impossible for her to put a foot wrong. She certainly doesn't here.

Best Picture

Will Win: Nomadland

Should Win: Promising Young Woman

Alright, the big category! I have actually seen all the films in this category, so in a quick fire fashion I'm going to rattle through the bunch. I found The Trial of the Chicago Seven pretty bland and while I can tell why it got nominated, I would be really disappointed if it wins. Sure, some people may be thinking of other recent trials when watching the film, but that's not even remotely what it's about and it is so bland and white that it barely translates to any recent events, despite what director Aaron Sorkin might say. I'm also not crazy on Mank. I was relatively complimentary of it on release, but it hasn't really stuck with me since. Again, an obvious nomination because it's about old Hollywood, but I'd be surprised if any of the voters have really thought about it much in any category apart from the technical ones. Maybe my second hottest take of the nominations is that I don't seem to like The Father as much as most. There are good performances and a solid structure, but I found myself getting bored of it much sooner than I had hoped. Fortunately, the rest of the films that won't win the award are ones I do really like! Minari is a very cute and sweet film, and while I don't quite get the hype some are building around it, it at the very least warms my heart that a film that relies so heavily on subtitles can again break into this category after Parasite's incredible success last year.

I also love Judas and the Black Messiah. Biopics are such easy Oscar fodder, but Judas feels really special. The two performances at the heart of it are sensational and the presentation feels casually radical. It is a sensationally moving film and while there is a chance it could sneak in a win, I'm simply happy it got nominated. Likewise, Sound of Metal is an incredible film that really earns its place in this race. It's the first time I've ever seen the Deaf community portrayed in this kind of way on screen, which has helped me reframe a lot of things in my life actually. Every performance is brilliant, the sound design is (as you might expect) second to none and the plot is gently twisty in ways that keep you thinking about the film long after it ends. I can't wait to see it in a cinema. My favourite of all the bunch though is Promising Young Woman. It doesn't stand a chance because it's proving so controversial with audiences, but I think it is completely fantastic and is one of the most memorable viewing experiences I've had this year. However, against Nomadland, it stands no chance. I personally didn't vibe with Nomadland because I have a distaste for intense realism, but it feels like the closest to a good COVID-19 movie that has been released so far, offering a tale of people who have been abandoned by the economic systems of America. At every awards show it has been scooping up an embarrassment of riches and I feel like the Oscars will follow. It's by no means a bad film, it's just one I am personally detached from and I encourage you to check it out yourself. I could be wrong. In fact, I probably am. But if I predict its victory right, that will be enough of a win for me.