Oscars 2020 - Final Predictions

EDIT: this post has now been edited to reflect the correct and incorrect predictions I made, marking the incorrect in red and the correct in green, with a little tally at the bottom of how many I got in total.

It's been a much shorter ordeal this year but here we are, the Academy Awards ceremony is being held this Sunday. This means, as has been done by me for years and by those who came before me for about ninety years, it's time to predict who will be taking home the trophies at the biggest night in Hollywood. For the first time ever, I have seen every film in every category I'm talking about, so I'll be able to properly run down everything here, evaluating the work on display and picking who I think will win and who I think should win, were I the one choosing these awards. It's a fascinating bunch and there's some very hard to call races, so let's waste no more time with this pre-amble that most people skipped over. Time to predict!

Best Animated Film
Will Win: Toy Story 4

Should Win: I Lost My Body


It isn't a guarantee every year but there is a really rock solid bunch of films in the animated film category. At the Golden Globes, Missing Link took a shock win in the category and honestly, I'm glad it gave the film much more attention. When it came out in the spring, it made very little money despite being super charming and beautifully hand crafted and so while a win still feels unlikely, I just hope this nomination made more people watch Missing Link. If you were home with your families over Christmas, you probably watched Klaus, Netflix's animated Christmas film and as someone who only watched it a couple of days ago, it transcends the festive pigeonholing. Again, looks absolutely delightful and has a heart so pure that it would be difficult to be angry at it winning. Another highly deserved nomination goes to How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. I think it's a little weaker than the outstanding second film, but some of the visuals are incomprehensibly beautiful and if it affected anyone in the Academy as much as it did my two friends who were blinded by tears (miss ya gals), it could get its foot in the door. Barely beating that out for my personal choice of the bunch is a French animated film called I Lost My Body. No other film looks like this and quite simply, no other film this year had a hand as its protagonist; it has my heart but is too weird to win much else. That leaves the fairly obvious winner of Toy Story 4. Disney almost always take this award and sure, Toy Story 4 is beautifully animated, but I wish something more adventurous or original would take this award. Hope for the best while expecting the worst essentially.


Best Original Score
Will Win: Hildur GuĂ°nadĂ³ttir for Joker

Should Win: Alexandre Desplat for Little Women


Slightly more mixed bag in this category, as evidenced by the presence of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. This film is not good, although in fairness, the score is one of the best things about it even for all the borrowing it does from other films in the franchise. As in most other categories, 1917 is nominated here and I confess, I do not remember this score at all. The other scores on this list I could hum you a piece from, 1917 I could not. The film is great, it's just that the score is not as remarkable as the rest of the film. Marriage Story is also nominated here for Randy Newman's work. It's a little saccharine and plinky piano heavy, but it's part of Marriage Story so I can't help but love it. All but guaranteed to take this category is Hildur GuĂ°nadĂ³ttir for Joker. I rewatched Joker recently and wasn't as taken by it as I once was, but it is undeniable that about half of the power the film exerts is from the score which, while certainly not subtle, hits like a hammer. Were it me choosing though, I couldn't ignore Alexandre Desplat and Little Women. It is the kind of score where just listening to tracks from the album can bring back the same feelings the film elicits. Little Women has my entire heart and the score is a huge part of that.

Best Cinematography
Will Win and Should Win: Roger Deakins for 1917


Honestly, this feels like a slightly disappointing category this year, so let me break down why. The visuals of Joker are one of the best things about it, sure, but it still feels unremarkable, relying on a couple of great extreme long shots and then defaulting to your classic shot/reverse shot structure for the rest of the film. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood also feels a little out of place. I do think the film looks good but aside from some effortlessly presented long takes, the reason the film looks good is the production design, which is a totally different category. The Irishman is the exact same thing, where I think it has been voted in because the visual aspect of the film (the production design and de-ageing effects) and not necessarily the cinematography. One truly deserved nomination that was a total suprise though was The Lighthouse. There are few films in the hundred plus years of film history that have looked like this and the cinematography aids the themes perfectly, giving an utterly inescapable sense of claustrophobia. It is exactly the kind of film that is sadly overlooked by awards shows and I am delighted it's here. Clearly though, there is only one winner and it's Roger Deakins for 1917. If you know anything about this film, you probably know that it is presented like two continuous takes and while it could be dismissed as a gimmick, I think it's a smart decision, executed perfectly. Roger Deakins has only won one Oscar for cinematography and I hope the Academy are ready to make up for lost time, because this is cinema as pure dazzling spectacle, pushing the form to new possibilities.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit

Should Win: Greta Gerwig for Little Women



Again, interesting collection here, with some deserving films mixing among some slightly less. On the topic of the slightly less, Joker! There's things to like about Joker, sure, but the script is not one. Structurally, it rips off better Scorsese films and many of the most iconic moments were improvised (like that bathroom dance scene), but there's also super cringe worthy lines that are almost verbatim the "we live in a society" meme. Bad, should not be nominated. Slightly better is The Two Popes. It's just a film of two popes sitting around, chatting and yeah, the dialogue is pretty good, but again there is some structural fat to be trimmed, especially those flashback sequences. The Irishman is where this category gets much better, as this film is full of superb dialogue, given a structure that makes the three and a half hours fly by and pretty simply a wonderful condensation of real life events into a movie you're delighted to watch. That doesn't matter though, because Jojo Rabbit will win. I wish I liked this film more, but the wild tonal changes do not always work for me. I love Waititi, I won't be too angry if he finally becomes an Oscar winner but this should not have been the film. Not only is this the case because the screenplay is a tad ropey, it's also because Little Women is sensational and will be cruelly snubbed. Gerwig re-mapped the original structure of the novel onto two interweaving timelines and hand picked dialogue from the novel with the most relevancy to our current world. all to create a world that once you enter, you never truly leave. I adore this film with all my heart, I just want the best for it. Is that too much to ask?

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Should Win: Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story




This might be my favourite category this year, so many of the films here represent the very best of what cinema can do, and I'll be happy with pretty much any victor. I think 1917 doesn't stand much chance, because while the structure is great, people think only of the visual spectacle when it comes to this film. It's a wonderful film, but rewarding it for the script feels like the wrong move. Knives Out picks up its one nomination in this category and hurrah! Rian Johnson created a really exciting and unpredictable murder mystery that also holds up on repeat viewings due to wickedly funny and biting dialogue. Speaking of wicked, Parasite was a shock nomination here but damn does it deserve it. The way the film unfurls itself in front of you is one of the cinematic treats of 2019, a film so satisfyingly weaved that I spent most of my second viewing slapping my desk and kicking my feet with sheer glee. In a fair year, it would stand a shot, but it will cower before the might of Quentin Tarantino's work on Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood. Tarantino has picked up a few trophies from the Academy before, he's a big favourite over there and for his work delivering a big sloppy blowjob to a Hollywood once gone, it would be a real upset if he didn't pick this up. Which is why I have my fingers crossed for Marriage Story. Like Little Women, this is one film that is pretty much all I want from cinema, so I'm supporting it all the way and if there's any non-acting award it has a chance in, I hope it's this. Generally, it's a film that feels quite restrained and all of that comes from the script. The humour, the hope, the agony! They fly off the page, onto the screen and into our hearts. Noah Baumbach, I wish you the best for this uphill battle.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win and Should Win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood


For the supporting actors, they're a solid bunch with only a slightly weak Anthony Hopkins from The Two Popes weighing the category down. He isn't bad, not at all, but he feels pretty unremarkable, especially compared to the rest. I was delighted to see Tom Hanks getting nominated for his performance as Mr Rogers. I think the work he does is far more than simple impersonation, but it unfortunately seems unlikely that that'll be recognised. Getting to the Irishman portion of this category, Al Pacino is here! He shouts, he has remorse, he does quiet stuff. He is great and varied and will not get the award. Joe Pesci is even better! The man was dragged out of retirement to again show age induced remorse and I love him with all my heart. But Brad Pitt has this totally in the bag for Hollywood. I think the acting awards for this season are similar to those in 2018, in that the same four performers won every award on their way to the Oscars and then took the Oscar, of which Brad makes up one of this years four (and the other three obviously being discussed below). In fairness, he's awesome and edges out Pesci as my choice. I rewatched Hollywood recently and even through the stuff that I don't like as much, Brad Pitt propels the film with a tonne of energy. There's one scene where he delivers the line "Yes we do" and his delivery makes it the best line in the whole film. Plus, he has been nailing it with his speeches this season and you just know the Academy would love to give him the award to see what funny little self-depreciating jokes he makes. It'll be his first (acting) Oscar and a well deserved one at that.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Should Win: Florence Pugh for Little Women


I'll be honest, aside from the top two, this is another slightly sad list. Scarlett Johansson is shockingly nominated for Jojo Rabbit and sure, she's good, but not good enough to get her second nomination of the year. Also a little surprising was Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell. I'll give her credit, she's better than most else in the film, but that is not high praise as the movie is kind of crap and sadly features only one macarena sequence. Margot Robbie got nominated for Bombshell and like with Richard Jewell, she outshines the film itself, giving the film its best scene. I like her in it but in a controversial opinion, I think she's better in Hollywood. Sure, she has very little dialogue but as Sharon Tate, she has a screen presence like few other working actresses today. Speaking of wonderful women though, Laura Dern seems poised to win her first Oscar for her work in Marriage Story. I love Laura Dern so much, she's been amazing for decades and this year, she could have been nominated for this or her amazing work as Marmee in Little Women. Whichever it was, I knew I'd be there cheering when she wins. However, there's an outsider chance from her Little Women co-star Florence Pugh. It's been on the record for a couple of years now that I adore Pugh. I keep wanting to call her a star in the making, but I think that star has now been made. Her work as Amy March is incredible, maybe only properly appreciable on a second watch and while it feels a little early in her career for an Oscar win, I think she is giving the best performance out of anyone else in this category.

Best Actor
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Should Win: Adam Driver for Marriage Story


This is probably my other favourite category of the bunch, with five top notch performers all at the top of their game. It says a lot that the weakest work here is Johnathan Pryce for The Two Popes. His accent work is top notch, the pathos he delivers is great and I could happily have watched him for another two hours, the issue is just that the unremarkable nature of the film harms him. Fresh off his long awaited Oscar win, Leonardo DiCaprio is up for Hollywood, because of his work as Rick Fucking Dalton. It's not quite his best work but he gives an intensely watchable performance, being the beating heart of the film. Picking up that rare nomination for a foreign language film is Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory. I'm finally on board with Pedro AlmodĂ³var's films and loved this, a film that simply wouldn't work without the incredible work Banderas does, whether in subtler or far showier scenes, as a director fighting a heroin addiction and old age. Clearly though, this award belongs to Joaquin Phoenix for Joker. Even as a detractor of the film, this I cannot fight. The man is awesome as Arthur Fleck and has also helped his chances considerably by chucking in an impressive physical transformation to his role. The only grievance I have with him winning will be that Adam Driver loses for his work in Marriage Story. Good Christ, what a powerhouse. Again, he runs the gambit from subtle to forceful and DO WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THAT ARGUMENT SCENE? Driver is going to be robbed, but at least it'll be a worthy robber.

Best Actress
Will Win: RenĂ©e Zellweger for Judy

Should Win: Scarlet Johansson for Marriage Story


I don't know why the actress races are slightly lacklustre this year, but here we are. No two actresses embody this more than Cynthia Erivo and Charlize Theron for Harriet and Bombshell respectively. Both give super solid performances and are certainly doing their films a big favour, but the problem is that their films are really forgettable and even a bit boring, which damages the feeling you have towards their performances. If someone gives a great performance but it's in a boring film, that's a uphill battle you're fighting there. Someone who does not have that problem is Saoirse Ronan in Little Women. She's been great for years, this is no secret, but like everything else in Little Women, a second watch really helps you appreciate the nuance of her work. Yet again, she won't win, but damn would she deserve it. She won't win because RenĂ©e Zellweger will for Judy though, which really lets me down. Zellweger is pretty good in Judy, certainly the best thing about it, but the film is so unremarkable and there are so many incredible actresses who are missing out on the praise and acclaim that her performance has sucked out of the room. That is no clearer than when talking about Scarlet Johansson and Marriage Story. I don't think she deserved her Jojo Rabbit nom, but this she completely deserves, giving the best performance I have ever seen from her. Like Driver, she plays emotions at every end of the spectrum, with incredibly impressive depth of nuance too and must I say it again, DO WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THAT ARGUMENT SCENE? There is one scene early in the film where she gives a monologue for about five minutes, a monologue about nothing much, and by the end, I was crying for the first time in the film, though not for the last. It is a performance that simply works wonders and I'm so upset at how overlooked it has been.

Best Director
Will Win and Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite


While we at least have one non-Caucasian director in this list, it's a depressingly bland selection of directors here, that feels (with one notable exception) like a very predictable line up. What Todd Philips is doing here I have no idea, seeing as he just made a slightly less successful Martin Scorsese movie. It's a nomination that could have gone to someone like Greta Gerwig or the Safdie Brothers, but sure, nominate the Hangover guy. Sam Mendes too, I am not entirely sure his placement. The most "cinematic" thing about 1917 is the cinematography, which he was not in charge of. I guess he got the nomination because 1917 got nominated for everything, so sure. These next three directors though, they all made films that could very clearly only be made by them. As I said earlier, Hollywood is a big, Tarantino directed blow job for a bygone era of Hollywood and it certainly feels like a Tarantino film, though I think surely he can't win. Martin Scorsese probably doesn't have much chance either at winning, but that's a real shame. The Irishman is exactly the kind of gangster movie he's always made so well, only now it's much slower and sadder. It's a really smart play on what has become a trademark for the director and it is 100% a Scorsese film. The guy I think will take it though, and deservedly so, is Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite. I think it's unlikely that Parasite will take Best Picture, but as a consolation prize, director Bong may just take this award. It is an utterly bonkers movie and the really great thing about Parasite is that it is unlike anything else, other than Bong Joon-Ho's other films. It is crafted and curated and utterly perfected more than anything else, so I think (and hope) that Parasite will get this at least, leading to one final awards season speech from director Bong and his delightful translator.

Best Picture
Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Marriage Story


Finally, to Best Picture. We have nine nominees this year and unlike last year, I would say all of them actually fall on the spectrum of good. The closest to falling off that spectrum is Joker, a stupid riff on Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy that has needless Batman references, yet still manages to pack enough of an emotional punch that you don't think you've wasted your time. Jojo Rabbit too, I think is a very flawed film, although its message that Nazis are bad, delivered from a place that feels full of care, means I'm not overly angry at its existence. Ford v Ferrari is a fairly unremarkable film, but equally, it will not disappoint anyone. It is funny, a little bit tense and you care about the characters. If he saw it, it's probably your dad's new favourite film. Similarly, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood has a couple of controversial moments, but has enough moments that all the family can enjoy! Okay, maybe not all the family, unless your little sister really hates the Manson Family, but certainly most people who love movies will find loads here to love, even if there's stuff they don't like as much. If you want a film with loads of stuff in it though, you want The Irishman, because it's three and a half hours long. This is the kind of film for people who love the earlier Scorsese films but also love to feel a deep and powerful sense of loss, melancholy and regret. Yum, everyone's favourite!

I think these next four films are all excellent, three of them being genuine masterpieces. Parasite is one of the most accomplished films I have seen from this century, performing a confidence that is irresistible and pulling the rug away from the audience at all the right moments. The fact that it has come this far is incredible, I only hope it'll make it that bit further. Perhaps even more perfect is Little Women, a retelling of a story from the 19th century that feels like it could only have been made today. There is a vitality and essential nature to this film and how anyone could not adore it baffles me. I think the film that will clench it though is 1917. There is a slight element of backlash coming against it because of how many of the awards it has been winning on the war path to the Oscars, but it still has huge amounts of support and the fact remains, it is a wonderful film. My choice though? It could never be anything other than Marriage Story. Marriage Story is a film that reminds me how much I love films. I laugh with it, cry with it and feel my heart explode with it. The hype has died down around it and so I don't think it stands a chance anymore sadly, but were I voting, it would be my choice.

In the end, while I think 1917 is the front runner, there is still a chance that Hollywood or even Parasite could win the big award. If Parasite, Little Women or Marriage Story win, I'll scream and holler with joy at my TV. Just remember, hope for the best while expecting the worst, and keep telling yourself it's only a pointless awards thing. It doesn't really matter. But I will still tweet angrily when Joker wins awards, because such is the nature of man. Anyway, stay safe out there this Oscar night and if you lose any sweepstakes based on my predictions, I am not at fault, blame the liberal elite or something.

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