Oscars 2020 - Nomination Predictions

Edit: this post has now been edited to reflect what I did and didn't get right. As ever, it's been a nominations list full of highs and lows, accurate guesses and total flubs.

It is January, which means awards season has utterly enveloped us. Discussion time for awards worthy art films and only awards worthy art films! Honestly, looking back at the year in cinema and not even having seen all the big contenders, I am blown away by what an exceptional year we've had, which makes this prediction list even more of a pleasure than it usually is. It's the exact same format as it is every year here: I'll mark out three things that I think are fairly certain bets for nominations in their respective categories and then highlight one nomination that seems very unlikely but (at least in my opinion) is highly worthy, doubling that number at the Best Picture predictions because in theory, there could be ten nominees there. We'll also be sticking to the usual thing of me trying to prioritise those films that I love and sweeping the mediocre or bad *cough* Joker *cough* under the rug somewhat, while still bearing in mind that by and large, I'm aiming for prediction accuracy over the things that give me joy. With that out the way, let's get cracking!

Best Cinematography

Likely Bets:

Roger Deakins for 1917

Robert Richardson for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Rodrigo Prieto for The Irishman

Unlikely but Worthy:

Yorick Le Saux for Little Women

Awards ceremonies are often drawn to the flashiest examples of cinematography and so while still being worth talking about and probably among some of the best cinematography of the year, that's exactly what these all are. First and most obvious comes perennial nominee and cinematography rockstar Roger Deakins for 1917, a film whose presentation has become infamous. While not quite, as many have been stating, one continous shot, it remains impressive at only two continous shots, never cutting away from our characters and the horrors they face, in one of the most impressive acts of cinematic immersion in recent years. Also great is Robert Richardson for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood. Back when I reviewed this, I wrote that it was another film of total immersion, making me forget I'd just moved to an entirely different continent and sure, part of that credit goes to set design, costume design and special effects but it should be said that Richardson's cinematography is just bloody fab. Another CGI heavy film is The Irishman and again, much is to be said in favour of (and against) it but Rodrigo Prieto does such a brilliant job creating a film that feels old. Not long, not even quite elderly, but old. I can't explain it but it'll probably get nominated regardless. My first personal choice though, for a film whose drum I will be pounding for the next month, is Yorick le Saux for Little Women. In describing Little Women (a film I'm likely to review soon, fear not), the word I keep coming back to is lush. In just about every sense it is lush but visually especially, my breath was taken away. There are shots worthy of framing, sure, but even the little moments between the little women look stunning and I am keeping my fingers crossed for some recognition here.

Best Original Screenplay:

Likely Bets:

Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story

Rian Johnson for Knives Out

Unlikely but Worthy:

Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel and Katie Silberman for Booksmart

All but guaranteed every time he puts out a film, we should absolutely expect Tarantino to get a nomination for his screenplay for Hollywood, a film whose dialogue crackles as much as ever, while lending proceedings a sadness that feels rare for his work. I feel I owe the film a rewatch in the near future but I do remember it just feeling more mature than his work usually does. My favourite of this bunch though is Noah Baumbach for his sensational Marriage Story. Personally, I think this film deserves to be recognised in just about every category possible (best editing, best score, best animated short, why not?) but it is clearly a showcase for actors and the script. Much has been made of how in many scenes, including the unbelievably potent fight scene, the actors were forced to stick to the script verbatim and while these showcases should earn Baumbach the nomination alone, I'd give it to him for the elegance he draws in the quiet. Also excellent though is Rian Johnson for his twisty thriller Knives Out. Not only is the dialogue spot on in this, the structure is sublime. There is a moment where I could swear the film was headed off the rails but no, Johnson had written another set of rails under us without us even noticing. I get to have my own choice though and I am going to say, fairly obviously, that Booksmart deserves a nomination. Even now, all these months after release, few things have topped it. The dialogue stunned, the way it linked should-be-tropes together felt fresh and honestly, it would be a hilarious mess to see four people win one Oscar for screenwriting. A mess that would be well deserved.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Likely Bets:

Greta Gerwig for Little Women

Steven Zaillian for The Irishman

Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth and Jason Keller for Ford v Ferrari

Unlikely but Worthy:

Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Toot that Little Women horn folks, we are back in the station. I have never read the source novel for the film but after seeing what Gerwig did to the novel, I don't really want to, for fear that it won't live up to this. In scripting the film, Gerwig made the decision to have two concurrent timelines, seven years apart, between which we flit across through the film. This decision energises the film and allows for comparisons and contrasts which are the entire reason adaptations exist. These next two I'm not as passionate about but hey, this is a guessing game primarily. The Irishman I do think is a fantastic film and one that will be deservedly rewarded this season but the script doesn't pop for me? The structure is good, the dialogue is good, but perhaps due to my total unfamiliarity with the source, I'm somewhat detached. On that note, there is also the screenplay for Ford v Ferrari, your dad's new favourite film. It's not a radical film in any shape, way or form but it crackles along and I have few complaints about its existence. As my choice though, I'd like to highlight a flick that is genuinely a little bit radical, the upsettingly overlooked A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. It was based off an article about what a hero Mr Rogers has been to the American people but the genius of the screenplay is how its attention pivots to Lloyd, the writer of that article. This radical reframing turns what should have been a generic biopic into a really fascinating look at family, love and acceptance. It'll almost certainly be overlooked but I dare to dream.

Best Supporting Actress:

Likely Bets:

Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Florence Pugh for Little Women

Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers

Unlikely but Worthy:

Julia Fox for Uncut Gems

What a sterling crop of performers we're starting with here. First up is Laura Dern for one of two of her brilliant roles this year, in Marriage Story. Dern is always superb (remember that time David Lynch campaigned with a cow to help her?) and while I could easily have gone with her performance from Little Women, it seems much more likely she'll be recognised for her showier turn as a divorce lawyer. She rips the screen apart every chance she gets and while overshadowed by Johansonn and Driver, she is just divine. Speaking of divine, we might be looking at our first ever Oscar nomination for Florence Pugh, queen of my heart. No, not for her scream queen role in Midsommar, though that gonzo nightmare deserves appreciation, but for Little Women. She brings a humanity to Amy March that is wonderful and while I don't think this is her year to win, let's get her into the big leagues as soon as possible. If we want to talk big leagues though, it doesn't get much bigger than Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers. She puts everything on the line in this film and anchors the whole film. Perhaps it's too fun a performance to get recognised by the Academy but I hope she gets it. Delivering similar extremes though, we have Julia Fox in Uncut Gems. Fox has never acted in a film before and you cannot tell, giving her performance a raw energy that is hard to fake. I think it's the most I've ever cared about a mistress on film and while this is perhaps my longest shot of a guess yet, it's the least she deserves.

Best Supporting Actor:

Likely Bets:

Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Joe Pesci for The Irishman

Al Pacino for The Irishman

Unlikely but Worthy:

Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse

A good category to be eyeing up this year if you're a Hollywood veteran, there's plenty of talent worthy of recognition around these parts. A deserving frontrunner right now is Brad Pitt for Hollywood, bringing a charisma that he hasn't had since maybe Fight Club to a character equally as troubling as Durden. Dude's a charmer, a nomination seems obvious here. The next two nominations though will come from Scorsese's The Irishman, the first being the ever beloved Joe Pesci. I love Joe Pesci greatly because of the nostalgia Home Alone has for me, but I've never seen him better than here. Joining him from the film is Al Pacino and while there's a part of me that hopes no one involved with Jack and Jill ever gets awards attention, his Jimmy Hoffa is too good to ignore. It's classic Pacino, something people are not complaining about at all. When coming to my pick, I was torn. On the one hand, I'm worried Tom Hanks will get overlooked for his performance as Mr Rogers in Beautiful Day but if we want to talk seriously overlooked performances, let's talk Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse. Like Hollywood, I need to revisit this so it'll sit more comfortably with me but even without that rewatch, I feel comfortable saying Dafoe is unhinged excellence. He screams, sings and farts with ferocity, giving a performance simply too insane to forget... Unless of course you're an Oscar voter, in which case you may very well have forgotten it. Let's try not to do that, huh?

Best Actress:

Likely Bets:

Cynthia Erivo for Harriet

Scarlett Johansonn for Marriage Story

Renée Zellweger for Judy

Unlikely but Worthy:

Lupita Nyong'o for Us

I have not seen two of the likely nominees here, so I'll start with praise of the one I have seen, that Scarlett Johansonn delivers in Marriage Story. Johansonn has been a great performer for a few years now, utilising little dialogue well in Under The Skin and only dialogue just as well in her, but this is a whole other stratosphere for her. In each and every scene, I believed in this character, the actress just melting away which is, ironically, a sign that she's doing what she does so well. Harriet I haven't seen but in a move that will likely be aimed at upping the diversity numbers of the nominees, Cynthia Erivo will probably get nominated. If she's anywhere near as good as she was in Widows or Bad Times at the El Royale last year, it'll be a warranted nomination though and if she is nominated, I swear I'll watch the film by the time we get to the final predictions. Also garnering acclaim for a comeback performance is Renée Zellweger, performing as Judy Garland in Judy. The Academy love it when a performer plays an existing person (just see Rami Malek's overrated work in Bohemian Rhapsody) and so while Zellweger may well deserve the nomination, she fits all the tropes of nominees. A woman whose dual work is almost guaranteed to be overlooked this year is Lupita Nyong'o for Us. Again, we can look at trends in nominees and see that horror films rarely get nominated (as those still sore over Toni Collette last year likely remember), which is what worries me for Nyong'o. Playing two separate versions of herself (alongside the rest of the excellent cast), she gives Us the spark that keeps you watching even as the film itself gets a little bit loopy. Super unlikely but it's a performance (or rather, two performances) worth remembering.

Best Actor:

Likely Bets:

Adam Driver for Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Unlikely but Worthy:

Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems

Fine, let's talk about the J word now. For all that is troubling, strange or plain not good about Joker, everyone is united around the fact that Joaquin Phoenix is brilliant as Arthur Fleck. Not the best he's ever been (I'd put his work in You Were Never Really Here above this) but noticeably great and he earns his place in this fight. His sparring partner for this entire awards season though has been (and will continue to be) Adam Driver for Marriage Story. Driver is legitmiately working at a career best here and for my money, gives the best performance of the year. His fury is frightening, yes, but his delicacy is so well placed that it could get overlooked by some voters. Joining these two will likely be Leonardo Di Caprio for Hollywood. This film is his first since he won his Oscar for The Revenant and while that means his heat is off a little bit, it can't be denied how great his work in Hollywood, balancing the misplaced confidence and pathetic sides of his character with ease. When it comes to my choice... Remember when I said I hope no one involved in Jack and Jill ever gets major awards attention? Well, Adam Sandler deserves an Oscar for his work in Uncut Gems. Without getting into the major details too much, there is a moment in the film where I all of a sudden realised that for the last two hours, I had not been watching Adam Sandler, I had been watching Howard Ratner. He channels all that I dislike about his comedy performances into a dramatic performance that I adore. Sandler's campaign for the Oscar starts here and I hate myself for how excited that makes me.

Best Director:

Likely Bets:

Martin Scorsese for The Irishman

Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite

Greta Gerwig for Little Women

Unlikely but Worthy:

Josh and Benny Safdie for Uncut Gems

When discussing directors, I often bring up how their role in films can be difficult to quantify. Do they define how a film looks or is that the cinematography? Do they help with performances or is that more down to the actors? Regardless, I try and think of directors as people without whom their films would not be the same. A perfect example of that is Martin Scorsese for The Irishman. It feels like a progression from the swaggering gangster flicks he made in the nineties, to a far more sombre film about loss, regret and growing old. Another great example is Korean auteur and delightful human being Bong Joon-Ho, for his work on Parasite. In trying to push the film into a genre, most have struggled and the only easy way to define it has been as "a Bong Joon-Ho film". Also bringing their own personal touch is Great Gerwig and her work on Little Women. She creates a reflexivity and generosity in the film that is impossible to deny and while I generally try and avoid allocating auteur status to filmmakers before they've made three films, Gerwig makes me want to break those rules. As an unlikely bet I want to push for though, we have Josh and Benny Safdie for their chaotic nightmare of a film, Uncut Gems. This film is awesome and could only come from them, bringing a level of chaos to the screen that is as admirable as it is often unwatchable. Maybe there's something about them being two directors that holds their chances back but I want the best for them and for this, their best film yet.

Best Picture:

Likely Bets:

The Irishman

Marriage Story

Little Women

1917

Parasite

Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Unlikely but Worthy:

Uncut Gems

The Souvenir

Here we are y'all, the big prize and honestly, we've got a hell of a selection to talk through this year. After having their smash hit Roma last year at the awards, Netflix are back in the running with two huge films. First is The Irishman, a mob epic whose scale and sombreness seem unlikely to be overlooked by the academy. Plus, it's Scorsese and even when he doesn't win, his films rarely get totally overlooked. The other big Netflix film (and still one of my favourites of the year) is the heartbreaking Marriage Story. Quite frankly, it's films like this that are all I want from cinema and if it isn't recognised, something horrible will have happened. Moving away from Netflix, we get to another one of my favourite films of the year, Little Women. This film is so exceptionally full of joy and heart and love that to see it snubbed would be like an act of violence on my heart. How can you not love a film this wonderful? Next, after a surprising win at the Golden Globes on Sunday, 1917 has really established itself as an awards contender and while it's shocking, it's deserved, for a film that delivers thrills and emotional heft in equal measure.

Let's talk about Parasite now. Stealthily, Parasite has established itself as something of a beloved hit during this awards season and deservedly so. It is unlike any of the other films in contention right now and while a Best Picture nomination for a foreign language film is still a rare feat, Bong Joon-Ho seems like the man capable of bucking the trend and sending waves through a time of year that can often feel a tad stagnant. Final of the likely bets is Hollywood. I see the chances of this film winning as unlikely but Tarantino is always a favourite and you can do a lot worse at pleasing the Academy than by making a love letter to Hollywood. Now then, we get to move on to two films I would love to vouch for, two films that are both ironically produced by Martin Scorsese and (don't say it too loudly) are maybe better than his work on The Irishman. The first is Uncut Gems, the chaotic New York masterpiece that perfectly captures the feeling of juggling biting dogs who are on fire while your entire extended family scream at you. My heart still hasn't recovered from seeing it, I love it to bits. For my final choice though, I want to send some love to a truly underappreciated film, The Souvenir. I think this film is wonderful, a tale of love and innocence and memory trapped in celluloid, and I can't understand why the critical adoration hasn't translated into awards success. It's exactly the kind of film the Academy should root for and yet, they will likely snub it. Still, I can dream.

That's all for now then gang! Pop back next week once the nominations have been announced, when I'll edit the post to show what I was right on and what I got wrong. The next couple of weeks will be reviews for some of the big awards contenders, before we get into final predictions in early February. Look forward to seeing you all then!

Correct guesses: 27 out of 30
Unlikely but worthy nominees: 0 out of 10