Oscars 2019- My Final Predictions
Edit: this post has been edited to reflect the depressing reality that we live in post-Oscars 2019, where any correct predictions are highlighted in green and any incorrrect predictions are highlighted in red. There's also a little tally at the bottom of how many I got right.
We finally made it. The worst awards season since I've been interested in films is finally starting to come to a close but before it does, there's one last wave of pointless predictions to be made. Now that all the nominees are in, I'm going to try and predict all the winners for the 2019 Oscars ceremony. Last year I actually managed to correctly predict all but one so fingers crossed for similar luck this year. As with all other years too, this is a blog that exists to get my trash opinion out there so I will also be saying which nominee I think most deserves to win. So come on friends, one last push and then we can get into dumb blockbuster season, just a little closer to the release of Hobbs and Shaw.
Best Original Score
Should Win and I'll Cry If It Doesn't: If Beale Street Could Talk
I don't want to discuss this formally because Beale Street's score is far and away the best from all the films nominated and in a world where this film has already been snubbed nearly everywhere, imagining it getting one final snub is just too much to bear.
Best Cinematography
Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Cinematography is an interesting category, as it allows us to talk about the difference between good looking films, films whose visuals have a purpose and films that combine both and fortunately (at least in regards to letting me talk about it), there are examples of all three here. One film that I haven't seen and I think very few others have is Never Look Away. It's a German film, sounds like it's well made but I haven't seen it so no comment. On the "pretty but shallow" end of the spectrum is A Star is Born. It looks nice and there is a feel of authenticity to the concert scenes but it's not remarkable and I think a lot of the best stuff in the concerts is because of the sound design. More on the side of formal brilliance is Cold War. I feel bad because I'm not crazy on this film but it's immaculately crafted and to be fair, beautiful too. If this or any of the next two win, I'll be happy. Speaking of, The Favourite remains another really odd looking Yorgos Lanthimos film and in any other year, I think it would deserve recognition. Of course though, it's going to get crushed by the might of Roma. Cuaron pulled double duty as both director and cinematographer and he makes a case that this isn't such a bad thing. With long takes that could well be some of the best on screen, as well as sumptuous black and white photography that would make Cold War embarrassed, Roma seems unbeatable, deservedly so.
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win and Will Win: The Favourite
I always say how much I like this category because it promotes a lot of genuinely original work but this year has proven a bit of a let down. Leading that charge is Vice which has weird ideas, isn't funny and has a bad structure. So, it's a bad screenplay, doesn't deserve a nomination at all. A little better, at the mediocre stage, is Green Book. Everything about it bar the performances is completely unremarkable and the screenplay is too. One surprise nomination in this category was First Reformed, from veteran screenwriter Paul Schrader. I'm not as fond of the film as others are but it's an impressive screenplay, albeit one that is just lucky to be nominated. When it comes to Roma, I think this is one of the few categories where it's nominated that it's unlikely to win. Don't get me wrong, the script is solid, there's just more notable elements that keep the film afloat. As far as I see it here, the only option is The Favourite, with its caustic dialogue and unconventional structure. Ironically, it's Lanthimos' first film where he hasn't worked on the screenplay but it could be the best one yet in any of his films. I have a horrible feeling The Favourite could get snubbed in a bunch of categories but here, it should and probably will win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
And so here is where the trend of disappointment begins to become clear, even if this category doesn't have any explicitly bad films. One of the weaker entries here for me is Can You Ever Forgive Me, a story about writers that therefore must get a nomination. It's fine and all but I just don't know if it's Oscar worthy. An entry where I'm something of a dissenter is The Ballad of Buster Scruggs because I wasn't crazy on the film. I thought it was fine and fairly well written in places but it wouldn't be my choice and the surprise everyone has had over the nomination makes it seem likely that it won't win. Speaking of not winning, A Star is Born is nominated here and seeing as the best things about the film are the performances that elevate a story that is tried and tested and cliched as hell, I can't see a win on the cards. What should win is of course Barry Jenkins' astonishing translation of James Baldwin's novel If Beale Street Could Talk. I haven't read the book myself although I know that much of the dialogue on screen is lifted from the text, and that dialogue sure is beautiful, but it also manages a delicate balancing act of moving between time periods and moods in a way that is as delightful as it is impressive. It takes a deft hand to translate poetic prose onto screen but Jenkins absolutely did. Instead though, I imagine it'll be another black writer/director taking the stage, in Spike Lee. His work on BlacKkKlansman is good and he's often been overlooked by the Academy so this is basically an overdue gift for him. Plus, if that man gets on stage, the fact that he could literally say anything is a fairly exciting prospect, even as someone who is going to be bummed out when Beale Street is snubbed.
Best Director
Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
An interesting bunch here, although again I just can't help but feel like we should have done better. Worst of the bunch by far is clearly Adam McKay for Vice, a film that seems to be confused by its own narrative and thematic direction, therefore meaning a failure on the part of the, oh I don't know, director? It's no Big Short mate, and even that wasn't quite Best Director worthy. One particularly shocking nomination was Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War. As I said earlier, I wish I could have loved it a bit more but it's certainly a film with genuine artistic scope and I'm happy for him that he got the nomination. Back again from the last category, we have Spike Lee. It's hard to know whether his impact comes more from his writing or directing and so while I think it may be the former, BlacKkKlansman is a film with his identity all over it. The Academy seem to like that film so this nomination makes sense. I think what's most shocking about this category is that I'm not actually rooting for my boy Yorgos Lanthimos and his work on The Favourite. Don't get me wrong, the film is still brilliant and remains a Lanthimos film even when he hasn't touched the script, I just think he's been nominated for the wrong film (seriously people, go watch Dogtooth and The Killing of a Sacred Deer). Well, that reason, and the fact that this category also has Alfonso Cuaron for Roma. It is hard to imagine any single other filmmaker making a film like this (even Curaron's friend and fellow Mexican auteur Inaritu), a film so deeply personal yet epic in the technical aspects. I have the feeling Roma is going to do really well this Sunday so Best Director will be yet another well deserved gong for Cuaron to carry home.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win and Will Win: Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Bar one other category, this is the least interesting category I'm covering here this year because there is little that really inspires me. Starting off with Sam Rockwell for Vice, I do love the dude and I'm glad he got his Oscar last year but his George Bush Jr. does feel more like a parody than an actual performance, making this another confusing nomination for Vice. Sam Elliot was another of many surprise nominations, for his work on A Star is Born and... You know, I always forget that he's in the film, he's just pretty solid and that's about it. Also solid is Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman. He does a fine job having to both look shocked at racism and then pretend he isn't shocked but John David Washington was a much more compelling screen presence and if you want a different supporting actor nomination for the film, go with Topher Grace's hilarious David Duke. Despite thinking his film was just fine, I'm actually quite behind Richard E Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me. He's charming despite being scummy and works in hidden depths to his character throughout. Plus, he seems like a lovely dude so he deserves it. Instead though, Mahershala Ali seems like a dead lock for Green Book and out of the group assembled here (where Stephan James and Timothee Chalamet have been SNUBBED), he does put in the best performance. Yeah, it's fairly showy and no, it hardly feels revolutionary but Ali is just a great actor and while his work in Green Book isn't as good as the fairly limited work he put in for Moonlight (and also won the Oscar for), it's still good enough that I won't be upset with him winning over any of the other nominees.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
Will Win: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Thank God for the women giving amazing performances this year or the entire rest of this post would be a total white wash. Amazingly, my least favourite performance of this bunch is from Amy Adams in Vice. Adams has been one of my favourite actresses for quite a while now but Vice is just crap and she seems to be weighed down by the script. She isn't actively bad because she never has been but this is on the weaker end. Fortunately, everyone else is great, including Marina de Tavira for Roma. Admittedly, I didn't think she'd get this nomination but Roma is a hugely powerful film and while there is one performance more important (that we'll get to) a lot of power comes from her. So an unlikely win but she deserves the nomination. The Favourite has two nominations in this category and while she's great, I think Emma Stone may be the weaker. Her accent is great because you forget it isn't her normal voice and she deals out the witty dialogue with ease. Someone manages to do it even better though and that's her co-star and fellow nominee Rachel Weisz. Both are great but Weisz's performance resonated with me so much more for whatever reason and I think she is the key to unlocking all the other characters in the film. She'd be my choice but at the moment, Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk seems to be the one to beat. Admittedly, I would be delighted if she wins, delivering both the smaller moments and the big scenes with a grace that is impressive and God knows I've spent the entire last month pushing for any recognition for Beale Street but Weisz was the performance I enjoyed the most. Regardless, it's a great selection of performances and even Adams would be a worthy winner, just because she deserves an Oscar already.
Best Actor
Should Win: Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Will Win: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
It was at this point of planning out this post that I genuinely took a break to work on my Uni assessment because it was less depressing than deciding which performance I like best from this bunch. First off, haven't seen At Eternity's Gate and I don't think many people have, they just like Willem Dafoe. That's fine, I also love Willem Dafoe but I haven't seen this film, simply because it isn't out yet in the UK. Viggo Mortensen is nominated for Green Book and... It's fine. He does an accent. The accent is fine. It's all fine. Next, Christian Bale for Vice. For all the things I hate about Vice, Christian Bale is solid. It's a showy performance sure but it works well. I don't hate it and for Vice, that's high praise. The actor I've settled on as my favourite of the bunch is Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. Again, it isn't particularly subtle but it works and you genuinely believe that he's a complete wreck by the end. Who knew the gay dude from Wet Hot American Summer would end up here? Finally though, it is at last time to talk about Bohemian Rhapsody. I'll briefly trash on it later but in fairness, Rami Malek is good in it. Not "Best Actor" worthy but of all the things this piece of shit film has been nominated for, I will be most okay with it winning here. And it will, because Rami is sweeping so many awards shows and seems so likeable and controversy proof that he would have to do something impressive to ruin his chances in the next couple of days.
Best Actress
Should Win: Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Will Win: Glenn Close for The Wife
Finally back to a category I care about, the nominees for Best Actress are all pretty good. Really, it says a lot that the weakest one is Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me, who manages to give the best performance I've ever seen from her. That's still not saying a huge amount but regardless, she's solid. Roma surprisingly rears its head again with star Yalitza Aparicio. Like in Supporting Actress, very few people expected this nomination but Aparicio is the heart of the film. If you take her out of Roma, you have a beautifully shot film without heart and it's for that reason that she deserves to be here. Lady Gaga is here folks, from A Star is Born! She's wonderful, made me cry and will not win because we're all a little bit sick of A Star is Born but hey, thanks for showing up and playing yourself Gaga! One woman who has given an absolutely crazy and electric performance is Olivia Colman in The Favourite. At one point while watching it, I realised that she was just playing the drunk version of Sophie from Peep Show but in a way, that made it more impressive. That she came into a film like this, played a sitcom character and still won the hearts of millions says a lot. Colman has a chance of winning but I think the one who's going to take it is Glen Close. Like Gary Oldman last year, she has the narrative of having done so much brilliant work in her career and never won and with The Wife, she's amazing again. She holds up the entire movie and while she isn't my personal choice, it's another case where I reckon she'll win and would be very happy for her if she does. So thank you women in film for giving us performances that actually gave me hope this year.
Best Picture
Should Win: The Favourite
Will Win: Roma
Here we are at the category that most of you have probably skipped down to. If you have time, do try and read the other predictions, I put some effort into that writing but equally, this is the only bit most people care about at the actual show so I understand. First, let's trash Bohemian Rhapsody. It's a poorly made film which has only had any recognition because of one good performance and a library of amazing songs that the film had no involvement in. I hate it with a raging passion and if it wins, I will be a broken man and definitely tweet out that gif of the woman scream crying. Also shit is Vice, a film that feels like someone with brain damage watched The Big Short while watching Fox News and then combined the two in his head, only it's actually made by many of the people from The Big Short. A hugely frustrating time whose popularity is baffling. The last of the films I don't really like here is Green Book. It's a completely serviceable film that feels like the textbook example of "Oscar bait", where the only things that are good are the two lead performances (and Linda Cardellini too in fairness) and the theme that racism is bad. Nice work team, progress made. Black Panther is a film whose presence has baffled many (mine included), seeing as it wasn't the best superhero last year, not even the best MCU film last year but equally, it's pretty solid. Ryan Coogler is a really great director and there's plenty in Black Panther that differentiates it from other superhero films but it still has the cookie cutter Marvel formula that has gotten stale. Not bad, just not worthy of a Best Picture nomination.
Everything starts to get a little bit better here, starting with A Star is Born. The first half of the film is basically perfect, everything leading up to the tear inducing (yeah, genuinely) Shallow being absolutely brilliant... And then there's the rest of the film, which is kind of boring and frustrating at points and is why I'm torn on it. BlacKkKlansman is better for sure, heading into the territory of films that I actually quite like. At this point, I think it's my favourite Spike Lee film and it has the opposite problem A Star is Born has, where the first half wasn't doing much for me and then the second half blew me away. There's plenty that deserves this nomination more but I can't hate BlacKkKlansman for being here, not when it's one of the three best films nominated. Speaking of the best films nominated though, I think my personal choice would be The Favourite. It's close between that and Roma but there's an oddball charm to The Favourite that is unlike anything else in competition this year. Everyone involved, from screenwriters to actors to costume designers, are on their absolute best form and it makes me happy that it exists and is doing this well. Most likely to end up taking home Best Picture though is Roma. There's still plenty standing in its way because neither a foreign language film, nor a film made by a streaming service, have ever won Best Picture but equally, there aren't a lot of films like Roma. Even if you don't like it (or prefer other films, like I do), it's hard to argue against the overwhelming technical merit of it. Technical merit wouldn't mean shit if the film didn't have heart though and there is a big, beautiful, beating heart inside Roma that half the films up for Best Picture wish they could have. Roma is most likely to win and honestly, it's one of only two films this year that really deserves that crown. Cuaron will hopefully finally join his other members of the Three Amigos (Guillermo Del Toro and Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu) in having a Best Picture winner and it's one of few outcomes that wouldn't result in me spending the rest of the year ranting. Do everyone a favour Academy, and do the one thing that could salvage the 2019 Oscars Ceremony from being the worst one in history. Please.
Correct Predictions: 6 out of 9
Films that won that should have won: 4 out of 10
Broken hearts, filled with disappointment: 1 out of 1
We finally made it. The worst awards season since I've been interested in films is finally starting to come to a close but before it does, there's one last wave of pointless predictions to be made. Now that all the nominees are in, I'm going to try and predict all the winners for the 2019 Oscars ceremony. Last year I actually managed to correctly predict all but one so fingers crossed for similar luck this year. As with all other years too, this is a blog that exists to get my trash opinion out there so I will also be saying which nominee I think most deserves to win. So come on friends, one last push and then we can get into dumb blockbuster season, just a little closer to the release of Hobbs and Shaw.
Best Original Score
Should Win and I'll Cry If It Doesn't: If Beale Street Could Talk
I don't want to discuss this formally because Beale Street's score is far and away the best from all the films nominated and in a world where this film has already been snubbed nearly everywhere, imagining it getting one final snub is just too much to bear.
Best Cinematography
Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Cinematography is an interesting category, as it allows us to talk about the difference between good looking films, films whose visuals have a purpose and films that combine both and fortunately (at least in regards to letting me talk about it), there are examples of all three here. One film that I haven't seen and I think very few others have is Never Look Away. It's a German film, sounds like it's well made but I haven't seen it so no comment. On the "pretty but shallow" end of the spectrum is A Star is Born. It looks nice and there is a feel of authenticity to the concert scenes but it's not remarkable and I think a lot of the best stuff in the concerts is because of the sound design. More on the side of formal brilliance is Cold War. I feel bad because I'm not crazy on this film but it's immaculately crafted and to be fair, beautiful too. If this or any of the next two win, I'll be happy. Speaking of, The Favourite remains another really odd looking Yorgos Lanthimos film and in any other year, I think it would deserve recognition. Of course though, it's going to get crushed by the might of Roma. Cuaron pulled double duty as both director and cinematographer and he makes a case that this isn't such a bad thing. With long takes that could well be some of the best on screen, as well as sumptuous black and white photography that would make Cold War embarrassed, Roma seems unbeatable, deservedly so.
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win and Will Win: The Favourite
I always say how much I like this category because it promotes a lot of genuinely original work but this year has proven a bit of a let down. Leading that charge is Vice which has weird ideas, isn't funny and has a bad structure. So, it's a bad screenplay, doesn't deserve a nomination at all. A little better, at the mediocre stage, is Green Book. Everything about it bar the performances is completely unremarkable and the screenplay is too. One surprise nomination in this category was First Reformed, from veteran screenwriter Paul Schrader. I'm not as fond of the film as others are but it's an impressive screenplay, albeit one that is just lucky to be nominated. When it comes to Roma, I think this is one of the few categories where it's nominated that it's unlikely to win. Don't get me wrong, the script is solid, there's just more notable elements that keep the film afloat. As far as I see it here, the only option is The Favourite, with its caustic dialogue and unconventional structure. Ironically, it's Lanthimos' first film where he hasn't worked on the screenplay but it could be the best one yet in any of his films. I have a horrible feeling The Favourite could get snubbed in a bunch of categories but here, it should and probably will win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
And so here is where the trend of disappointment begins to become clear, even if this category doesn't have any explicitly bad films. One of the weaker entries here for me is Can You Ever Forgive Me, a story about writers that therefore must get a nomination. It's fine and all but I just don't know if it's Oscar worthy. An entry where I'm something of a dissenter is The Ballad of Buster Scruggs because I wasn't crazy on the film. I thought it was fine and fairly well written in places but it wouldn't be my choice and the surprise everyone has had over the nomination makes it seem likely that it won't win. Speaking of not winning, A Star is Born is nominated here and seeing as the best things about the film are the performances that elevate a story that is tried and tested and cliched as hell, I can't see a win on the cards. What should win is of course Barry Jenkins' astonishing translation of James Baldwin's novel If Beale Street Could Talk. I haven't read the book myself although I know that much of the dialogue on screen is lifted from the text, and that dialogue sure is beautiful, but it also manages a delicate balancing act of moving between time periods and moods in a way that is as delightful as it is impressive. It takes a deft hand to translate poetic prose onto screen but Jenkins absolutely did. Instead though, I imagine it'll be another black writer/director taking the stage, in Spike Lee. His work on BlacKkKlansman is good and he's often been overlooked by the Academy so this is basically an overdue gift for him. Plus, if that man gets on stage, the fact that he could literally say anything is a fairly exciting prospect, even as someone who is going to be bummed out when Beale Street is snubbed.
Best Director
Should Win and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
An interesting bunch here, although again I just can't help but feel like we should have done better. Worst of the bunch by far is clearly Adam McKay for Vice, a film that seems to be confused by its own narrative and thematic direction, therefore meaning a failure on the part of the, oh I don't know, director? It's no Big Short mate, and even that wasn't quite Best Director worthy. One particularly shocking nomination was Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War. As I said earlier, I wish I could have loved it a bit more but it's certainly a film with genuine artistic scope and I'm happy for him that he got the nomination. Back again from the last category, we have Spike Lee. It's hard to know whether his impact comes more from his writing or directing and so while I think it may be the former, BlacKkKlansman is a film with his identity all over it. The Academy seem to like that film so this nomination makes sense. I think what's most shocking about this category is that I'm not actually rooting for my boy Yorgos Lanthimos and his work on The Favourite. Don't get me wrong, the film is still brilliant and remains a Lanthimos film even when he hasn't touched the script, I just think he's been nominated for the wrong film (seriously people, go watch Dogtooth and The Killing of a Sacred Deer). Well, that reason, and the fact that this category also has Alfonso Cuaron for Roma. It is hard to imagine any single other filmmaker making a film like this (even Curaron's friend and fellow Mexican auteur Inaritu), a film so deeply personal yet epic in the technical aspects. I have the feeling Roma is going to do really well this Sunday so Best Director will be yet another well deserved gong for Cuaron to carry home.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win and Will Win: Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Bar one other category, this is the least interesting category I'm covering here this year because there is little that really inspires me. Starting off with Sam Rockwell for Vice, I do love the dude and I'm glad he got his Oscar last year but his George Bush Jr. does feel more like a parody than an actual performance, making this another confusing nomination for Vice. Sam Elliot was another of many surprise nominations, for his work on A Star is Born and... You know, I always forget that he's in the film, he's just pretty solid and that's about it. Also solid is Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman. He does a fine job having to both look shocked at racism and then pretend he isn't shocked but John David Washington was a much more compelling screen presence and if you want a different supporting actor nomination for the film, go with Topher Grace's hilarious David Duke. Despite thinking his film was just fine, I'm actually quite behind Richard E Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me. He's charming despite being scummy and works in hidden depths to his character throughout. Plus, he seems like a lovely dude so he deserves it. Instead though, Mahershala Ali seems like a dead lock for Green Book and out of the group assembled here (where Stephan James and Timothee Chalamet have been SNUBBED), he does put in the best performance. Yeah, it's fairly showy and no, it hardly feels revolutionary but Ali is just a great actor and while his work in Green Book isn't as good as the fairly limited work he put in for Moonlight (and also won the Oscar for), it's still good enough that I won't be upset with him winning over any of the other nominees.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
Will Win: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Thank God for the women giving amazing performances this year or the entire rest of this post would be a total white wash. Amazingly, my least favourite performance of this bunch is from Amy Adams in Vice. Adams has been one of my favourite actresses for quite a while now but Vice is just crap and she seems to be weighed down by the script. She isn't actively bad because she never has been but this is on the weaker end. Fortunately, everyone else is great, including Marina de Tavira for Roma. Admittedly, I didn't think she'd get this nomination but Roma is a hugely powerful film and while there is one performance more important (that we'll get to) a lot of power comes from her. So an unlikely win but she deserves the nomination. The Favourite has two nominations in this category and while she's great, I think Emma Stone may be the weaker. Her accent is great because you forget it isn't her normal voice and she deals out the witty dialogue with ease. Someone manages to do it even better though and that's her co-star and fellow nominee Rachel Weisz. Both are great but Weisz's performance resonated with me so much more for whatever reason and I think she is the key to unlocking all the other characters in the film. She'd be my choice but at the moment, Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk seems to be the one to beat. Admittedly, I would be delighted if she wins, delivering both the smaller moments and the big scenes with a grace that is impressive and God knows I've spent the entire last month pushing for any recognition for Beale Street but Weisz was the performance I enjoyed the most. Regardless, it's a great selection of performances and even Adams would be a worthy winner, just because she deserves an Oscar already.
Best Actor
Should Win: Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Will Win: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
It was at this point of planning out this post that I genuinely took a break to work on my Uni assessment because it was less depressing than deciding which performance I like best from this bunch. First off, haven't seen At Eternity's Gate and I don't think many people have, they just like Willem Dafoe. That's fine, I also love Willem Dafoe but I haven't seen this film, simply because it isn't out yet in the UK. Viggo Mortensen is nominated for Green Book and... It's fine. He does an accent. The accent is fine. It's all fine. Next, Christian Bale for Vice. For all the things I hate about Vice, Christian Bale is solid. It's a showy performance sure but it works well. I don't hate it and for Vice, that's high praise. The actor I've settled on as my favourite of the bunch is Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. Again, it isn't particularly subtle but it works and you genuinely believe that he's a complete wreck by the end. Who knew the gay dude from Wet Hot American Summer would end up here? Finally though, it is at last time to talk about Bohemian Rhapsody. I'll briefly trash on it later but in fairness, Rami Malek is good in it. Not "Best Actor" worthy but of all the things this piece of shit film has been nominated for, I will be most okay with it winning here. And it will, because Rami is sweeping so many awards shows and seems so likeable and controversy proof that he would have to do something impressive to ruin his chances in the next couple of days.
Best Actress
Should Win: Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Will Win: Glenn Close for The Wife
Finally back to a category I care about, the nominees for Best Actress are all pretty good. Really, it says a lot that the weakest one is Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me, who manages to give the best performance I've ever seen from her. That's still not saying a huge amount but regardless, she's solid. Roma surprisingly rears its head again with star Yalitza Aparicio. Like in Supporting Actress, very few people expected this nomination but Aparicio is the heart of the film. If you take her out of Roma, you have a beautifully shot film without heart and it's for that reason that she deserves to be here. Lady Gaga is here folks, from A Star is Born! She's wonderful, made me cry and will not win because we're all a little bit sick of A Star is Born but hey, thanks for showing up and playing yourself Gaga! One woman who has given an absolutely crazy and electric performance is Olivia Colman in The Favourite. At one point while watching it, I realised that she was just playing the drunk version of Sophie from Peep Show but in a way, that made it more impressive. That she came into a film like this, played a sitcom character and still won the hearts of millions says a lot. Colman has a chance of winning but I think the one who's going to take it is Glen Close. Like Gary Oldman last year, she has the narrative of having done so much brilliant work in her career and never won and with The Wife, she's amazing again. She holds up the entire movie and while she isn't my personal choice, it's another case where I reckon she'll win and would be very happy for her if she does. So thank you women in film for giving us performances that actually gave me hope this year.
Best Picture
Should Win: The Favourite
Will Win: Roma
Here we are at the category that most of you have probably skipped down to. If you have time, do try and read the other predictions, I put some effort into that writing but equally, this is the only bit most people care about at the actual show so I understand. First, let's trash Bohemian Rhapsody. It's a poorly made film which has only had any recognition because of one good performance and a library of amazing songs that the film had no involvement in. I hate it with a raging passion and if it wins, I will be a broken man and definitely tweet out that gif of the woman scream crying. Also shit is Vice, a film that feels like someone with brain damage watched The Big Short while watching Fox News and then combined the two in his head, only it's actually made by many of the people from The Big Short. A hugely frustrating time whose popularity is baffling. The last of the films I don't really like here is Green Book. It's a completely serviceable film that feels like the textbook example of "Oscar bait", where the only things that are good are the two lead performances (and Linda Cardellini too in fairness) and the theme that racism is bad. Nice work team, progress made. Black Panther is a film whose presence has baffled many (mine included), seeing as it wasn't the best superhero last year, not even the best MCU film last year but equally, it's pretty solid. Ryan Coogler is a really great director and there's plenty in Black Panther that differentiates it from other superhero films but it still has the cookie cutter Marvel formula that has gotten stale. Not bad, just not worthy of a Best Picture nomination.
Everything starts to get a little bit better here, starting with A Star is Born. The first half of the film is basically perfect, everything leading up to the tear inducing (yeah, genuinely) Shallow being absolutely brilliant... And then there's the rest of the film, which is kind of boring and frustrating at points and is why I'm torn on it. BlacKkKlansman is better for sure, heading into the territory of films that I actually quite like. At this point, I think it's my favourite Spike Lee film and it has the opposite problem A Star is Born has, where the first half wasn't doing much for me and then the second half blew me away. There's plenty that deserves this nomination more but I can't hate BlacKkKlansman for being here, not when it's one of the three best films nominated. Speaking of the best films nominated though, I think my personal choice would be The Favourite. It's close between that and Roma but there's an oddball charm to The Favourite that is unlike anything else in competition this year. Everyone involved, from screenwriters to actors to costume designers, are on their absolute best form and it makes me happy that it exists and is doing this well. Most likely to end up taking home Best Picture though is Roma. There's still plenty standing in its way because neither a foreign language film, nor a film made by a streaming service, have ever won Best Picture but equally, there aren't a lot of films like Roma. Even if you don't like it (or prefer other films, like I do), it's hard to argue against the overwhelming technical merit of it. Technical merit wouldn't mean shit if the film didn't have heart though and there is a big, beautiful, beating heart inside Roma that half the films up for Best Picture wish they could have. Roma is most likely to win and honestly, it's one of only two films this year that really deserves that crown. Cuaron will hopefully finally join his other members of the Three Amigos (Guillermo Del Toro and Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu) in having a Best Picture winner and it's one of few outcomes that wouldn't result in me spending the rest of the year ranting. Do everyone a favour Academy, and do the one thing that could salvage the 2019 Oscars Ceremony from being the worst one in history. Please.
Correct Predictions: 6 out of 9
Films that won that should have won: 4 out of 10
Broken hearts, filled with disappointment: 1 out of 1
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