Oscars 2019- My Nomination Predictions
Edit: this post has been altered to reflect what did and didn't get nominated this year with correct predictions in green and incorrect predictions in red. Total correct predictions at the bottom
Oscars Season is here again and that means it's time to celebrate movies that are quite good while the ones that I thought were the best typically get sidelined. Regardless, it's a solid crop this year already but not all of them can be nominated. Some great films are not going to make it and that's my job here, to try and work out which films those are. As such, I largely am keeping my opinion out of the main predictions but there will be a little entry in each whose work was brilliant yet may get sidelined. So, let's predict some nominations for some bullshit awards that really don't mean much!
Best Cinematography
Likely Bets:
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Robbie Ryan for The Favourite
Linus Sandgren for First Man
Unlikely but Worthy:
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom for Suspiria
Let's start with cinematography, a favourite category of mine year in and year out, although this year perennial favourites Roger Deakins and Emmanuel Lubezki aren't in competition. Instead, there's some fresh faces who have come in to disrupt the game in fascinating ways. As a bonus, all these films I think will get nominated I've seen which means I can actually talk about them, unlike some later categories. First is the absolutely gorgeous Roma, which is hoping to break the taboo around foreign films at the Oscars. Some will find the film slow or maybe pointless but I think Roma stands a great chance here because it's frankly jaw-droppingly good looking and anyone even casually passing an eye over it will be able to notice that. Similarly, The Favourite stands a great chance here because of how obvious the cinematography is, with plenty of fish eye lenses and odd angles. That shouldn't underplay the great work I think it does, Oscar voters just like an easy choice sometimes. Finally, I'm putting hopes on First Man for some nomination love here. I'm worried about how well it'll do elsewhere in the ceremony (as you'll discover) but I think in terms of sheer visual splendour, First Man joins Chazelle's other films in the upper echelons of the most good looking films made this decade and I think it's hard to ignore that. Speaking of people whose work has impressed before, Luca Guadagnino's new film Suspiria is maybe not as obviously beautiful as Call Me By Your Name but I think the work Mukdeeprom has done on the cinematography does a great deal to distance Guadagnino's Suspiria from the original Argento work, by creating a film whose twisted visuals churned my stomach for two and a half hours. Suspiria (2018) polarised but I will keep pushing for it, including throughout this entire post #sorrynotsorry.
Best Original Screenplay
Likely Bets:
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Roma
Unlikely but Worthy:
Bad Times at the El Royale
Screenplays are always a funny thing to try and judge when you haven't actually read them but every year, me and thousands of others try our best and so let's give it another go this year. Original Screenplay is home to plenty of wack and/or outsider films and no film proves that more than likely nominee Eighth Grade. I haven't actually seen it yet because for some infuriating reason, there's yet to be a UK release but it's earned nothing but praise, mostly for the script. Bo Burnham was a YouTube sketch artist and stand-up comedian before he wrote the script and so it's not hard to imagine him following in the footsteps of Kumail Nanjiani last year with The Big Sick (which Burnham was actually in) by being the funny screenplay nominee that gets no other nominations. Speaking of funny scripts, The Favourite is another likely pick, although one that could make it just because it's one of those films that gets nominations in basically everything. With that said though, The Favourite is really funny and structured in a very original way, being key signifiers of a good script to people who haven't actually read the script. Roma is another film that will get nominated just for being Roma and so it doesn't really matter how good it is. I have no strong feelings on the screenplay but in fairness, I think it's a film whose balance is gentle and near unnoticeable which is usually a sign the screenplay is working. What I do want to give credit to, especially as there's such a minimal chance of it getting recognised, is Bad Times at the El Royale. It's got the structure style and dialogue of a Tarantino film (which the Academy love) but very few people saw it. I did, however, and was smitten by the electric pace which never slowed, despite being two and a half hours long. Just for that, Drew Goddard deserves an Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Bets:
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Unlikely but Worthy:
Suspiria
Adapted Screenplay seems to be an interesting field this year, starting off easy with A Star is Born. It's losing a little bit of momentum already but it adapts a story as old as time to our modern age, in a way that makes it feel modern. It's also just one of those frontrunner films that seems destined to get a nomination here because it gets nominations in everything. One film whose Best Picture chances seem shaky but whose screenplay is too electric to ignore is the slightly annoyingly named BlacKkKlansman. Spike Lee often delivers interesting and highly charged scripts (Oldboy aside) and Black Klansman is no exception, taking you on a roller coaster of the most varied emotions imaginable in a way so much more effective than I was expecting. Plus, there's Trump bashing at the end and the Academy would love to push for progressiveness. I haven't seen Can You Ever Forgive Me? yet but it's a story about writers and writing, hence screenplay nomination seems likely. It should be no surprise that as my personal choice for adapted screenplay, I want Suspiria up here. The key reason is the emphasis on that word, "adapted". Suspiria (2018) is so radically different from Suspiria (1977) and moves around the pieces from the first film to create something that is so joyously and radically different, making it basically the perfect example of how to do an adapted screenplay.
Best Director
Likely Bets:
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
Unlikely but Worthy:
Luca Guadagnino for Suspiria
Best Director is often a little bit of a filler award for the Oscars who never really know what diffirentiates the best director and so most of the nominations will just be holdovers from Best Picture. Still, a lot of the time they like to look out for their favourites and despite not being nominated here before, Bradley Cooper is certainly a favourite. A Star is Born is Cooper's debut and it's a fine film that's pretty well made so even if I don't think it will win Best Director, the Academy love him. Instead, I think it will come down to two foreign auteurs, one of whom is Greek director Yorgos Lanthimos. I love his work and think it's some of the most interesting stuff being made right now and The Favourite, while not his best work, is his most accessible piece and one I imagine the Academy being ready to finally reward. Speaking of though, Alfonso Cuaron is part of a trio of Mexican directors (the other two being Guillermo Del Toro and Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu) who have been absolutely crushing it at the Oscars and with his gorgeous passion project Roma, a direcotiral nom is an absolute given. When it comes to who I want to get a nomination though... Well, it's obviously Luca Guadagnino for Suspiria. He took a film that is so beloved in the horror community and made something so daringly new out of it, while also capturing some of his directorial style in the midst of the madness. I love it and will not stop championing it anytime soon.
Best Supporting Actor
Likely Bets:
Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Unlikely but Worthy:
Chris Hemsworth for Bad Times at the El Royale
Slightly limp category here, although there are a few bright spots, one of whom is obviously ma boi Timothee Chalamet. He was ROBBED of his Oscar last year for Call Me By Your Name (as was everyone apart from James Ivory) and while Beautiful Boy as a film is nothing close to that, he still delivers another incredible performance. It also has the benefit of being a real person and a drug addict character which are instant nominations. Another real life character, this time in a film I haven't seen, is Mahershala Ali for Green Book. The film itself has come under some fire but Ali just won a Golden Globe for his performance, meaning that his chance of a nomination is almost guaranteed. The biggest question mark in this list for me is ANOTHER true life character from Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?. I've tried to stay away from too many details about the film so I can properly enjoy it but Grant has been picking up nominations all along the circuit and while a win seems unlikely for him, he has a solid chance of nomination. My personal choice for this list is maybe the most unlikely choice of the entire bunch, in Chris Hemsworth from Bad Times at the El Royale. Sure, it's hardly a deep or meaningful role but it's the kind of character who isn't on screen a lot but whose presence is always felt and GOD DAMN, that swagger he carries when he does turn up. Like I say, it's such a long shot it's a joke but as far as supporting roles that captivated me, I'd be hard pushed to find better than Hemsworth.
Best Supporting Actress
Likely Bets:
Emma Stone for The Favourite
Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Unlikely but Worthy:
Tilda Swinton for Suspiria
There's many great actresses who could get nominated here but I only get three choices and I want to keep my winning streak up, which sadly means I'm preparing for the fact that Amy Adams might get snubbed again. Two of the best bets going happen to be from the same film which is a rare thing, those two women being Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz from The Favourite. The film is brilliant and a large part of that is the performances at the centre. For my money, Weisz puts in the better performance but that's not what we're trying to work out here and both are given equal time to show their range, earning their likely nominations with ease. However, one actress who seems like a lock whose quality I can't yet comment on is Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Haven't seen it, can't wait to see it but she just won the Golden Globe for it and is apparently brilliant so don't bet against her. Someone you sadly can bet against is Tilda Swinton from, yup, Suspiria. She plays three absolutely crazy roles in the film although if you have to single out one, go for Madame Blanc. She brings her typical enigmatic energy to that part and it's a role whose depth only flowers on a second viewing but will obviously not get a nomination because Suspiria is "too weird" and "quite pretentious" and "makes people too nauseous".
Best Actor
Likely Bets:
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Christian Bale for Vice
Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Unlikely but Worthy:
Ryan Gosling for First Man
Honestly, it's a slightly bland field up front for Best Actor but I'm still going to try and squeeze some joy from these chaps. First up, let's talk the elephant in the room, Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. I don't think I've properly gotten into how much I genuinely hate that film (and unfortunately, more on that later) but one thing I will say is genuinely good about it is Rami Malek. He's not Oscar worthy in the film but he won a Golden Globe and that means we have to take this awful film seriously now. Hooray. One actor who is great in a movie with music (that apparently isn't a musical) is Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born. I've gone off the guy a little since American Sniper but he redeems himself here with a great role. Maybe not Oscar great but like I said earlier, the Academy love them some Cooper. Current frontrunner though is Christian Bale for Vice because LOOK AT THE PHOTO UP THERE! The Academy loves a good transformative performance (just look at Gary Oldman last year) and so while I haven't seen Vice yet (very excited), Bale seems likely to bag another nomination. My outside choice here is probably the most likely of all the outside choices on this post but I've gone for Ryan Gosling in First Man because that film has been losing steam ever since the absurd flag controversy. Gosling is typically brilliant in the film and aside from technical elements (especially score and cinematography), I think he's really the best shot the film stands at any recognition. God do I hope I'm wrong about that though
Best Actress
Likely Bets:
Glen Close for The Wife
Lady Gaga for A Star is Born
Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Unlikely but Worthy:
Toni Collette for Hereditary
This could well be the closest competition of all the non-Best Picture nominees and I think it says a lot that I've seen all three and genuinely believe that they all deserve to be nominated for absolutely superb work. First up is Glen Close who has the misfortune of sharing a "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" position with Amy Adams, both getting nominated countless times yet never winning. Many have said this will be her year but regardless, you can't ignore her brilliant work in The Wife, a performance that elevates the entire film massively. Speaking of, I was astonished by how much I fell in love with Lady Gaga in A Star is Born. Sure, maybe she's kind of playing herself but as someone who wasn't a big fan of hers before, she had a presence that I could never take my eyes off (so yeah, I just wanted to get one more look at her, I MADE THE REFERENCE) and all my favourite moments in the film were ones she controlled completely. At the complete opposite end of control is Olivia Colman in the favourite. She's slowly been making herself much more known in America and this crowning jewel marks the moment that mainstream audiences will love her. Plus, she's just dominating every awards ceremony around, of course she'll get nominated. Unfortunately, one actress whose chances have been entirely scuppered just by the genre of her film is Toni Collette for Hereditary. For my money, I think she could have given the best performance of last year, both getting to play the massive emotions and adding extra weight to much smaller stuff. Unfortunately, it's a horror film and those can only do well with a huge awards push which, sadly, Hereditary and Collette does not have. Quick applause for me not picking Suspiria though.
Best Picture
Likely Bets:
A Star is Born
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
Green Book
Bohemian Rhapsody
Unlikely but Worthy:
Suspiria
Shoplifters
So we're at the big one and the one most of you probably just skipped down to without reading the others but that's fine, I'll make sure to try my absolute hardest here. I'm also predicting double the nominees because Best Picture at the Oscars can have up to ten nominees whereas all the others only have five. First up, A Star is Born has been something of a front runner ever since it first debuted at Venice and while some of that heat has died, a nomination seems almost a guarantee when it's a film as easy to enjoy as this. Roma is also a film that I think will get nominated but it will have a lot more difficulty getting there because it's black and white, foreign language and made by Netflix. Even with those factors, Roma is such a beautiful film and one whose acclaim elsewhere should be impossible to ignore for the Academy. One of two films I haven't seen out of my predictions is Barry Jenkins' follow-up to Moonlight, If Beale Street Could Talk. I've heard little rapturous buzz from awards shows but the critical acclaim is still roaring and hey, supporting film makers in minority groups is always a pretty swell thing to do. Going back to my comfort zone, The Favourite seems an absolute shoe in for a nomination and that makes me so happy. It's the most approachable work Lanthimos has ever done, propelled by superb performances and writing that shoots off the page, onto the screen and into your soul. Despite being a period drama, it is a breath of fresh air that would deserve any nominations it achieves.
Time for the troublesome twosome of awards season. One of those I'm still yet to see and that is Green Book. On the surface, it seemed a fairly charming and lightweight film about race relations but it's recently picked up A LOT of criticism for all sorts of stuff, from one producer's tweet about Muslims celebrating 9/11 to the director talking about how he enjoys flashing his penis at people. Even with all of that, it won a Golden Globe for Best Comedy so I'm expecting at least a nomination. Last of the likely nominations is my personal nemesis Bohemian Rhapsody. Aside from all the stuff about Bryan Singer and his alleged paedophilia, I think it's a poorly made film that gets by on the goodwill of Queen's legacy. Like Green Book though, it won a Golden Globe (for Best Drama) which means I sadly have to consider it a serious contender in the Best Picture race. The placement of Bohemian Rhapsody is so upsetting to me because of the films that now won't get nominated, one of which is (of course) Suspiria. No chance of nomination because it's too odd a film but it's my favourite of last year so I have to stick up for it. One another film that I think does deserve a shot though is Shoplifters, a Japanese movie in which not much happens. Being a foreign film that isn't Roma, I don't think it'll get a Best Picture nomination because subtitles are just too hard for the Academy but God does it deserve it. It's the kind of quiet, intimate drama that the Academy go crazy for but because you have to read the film as well as watch it, the uphill battle seems sadly likely to prove too much.
Well, that's my prediction list. Be sure to check back after the actual nominations are announced to see how well I did (or didn't) do at predicting everything.
Final Tally:
25 correct out of 30 nominations
0 out of 10 unlikely choices were nominated (not too surprising really)
Oscars Season is here again and that means it's time to celebrate movies that are quite good while the ones that I thought were the best typically get sidelined. Regardless, it's a solid crop this year already but not all of them can be nominated. Some great films are not going to make it and that's my job here, to try and work out which films those are. As such, I largely am keeping my opinion out of the main predictions but there will be a little entry in each whose work was brilliant yet may get sidelined. So, let's predict some nominations for some bullshit awards that really don't mean much!
Best Cinematography
Likely Bets:
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Robbie Ryan for The Favourite
Linus Sandgren for First Man
Unlikely but Worthy:
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom for Suspiria
Let's start with cinematography, a favourite category of mine year in and year out, although this year perennial favourites Roger Deakins and Emmanuel Lubezki aren't in competition. Instead, there's some fresh faces who have come in to disrupt the game in fascinating ways. As a bonus, all these films I think will get nominated I've seen which means I can actually talk about them, unlike some later categories. First is the absolutely gorgeous Roma, which is hoping to break the taboo around foreign films at the Oscars. Some will find the film slow or maybe pointless but I think Roma stands a great chance here because it's frankly jaw-droppingly good looking and anyone even casually passing an eye over it will be able to notice that. Similarly, The Favourite stands a great chance here because of how obvious the cinematography is, with plenty of fish eye lenses and odd angles. That shouldn't underplay the great work I think it does, Oscar voters just like an easy choice sometimes. Finally, I'm putting hopes on First Man for some nomination love here. I'm worried about how well it'll do elsewhere in the ceremony (as you'll discover) but I think in terms of sheer visual splendour, First Man joins Chazelle's other films in the upper echelons of the most good looking films made this decade and I think it's hard to ignore that. Speaking of people whose work has impressed before, Luca Guadagnino's new film Suspiria is maybe not as obviously beautiful as Call Me By Your Name but I think the work Mukdeeprom has done on the cinematography does a great deal to distance Guadagnino's Suspiria from the original Argento work, by creating a film whose twisted visuals churned my stomach for two and a half hours. Suspiria (2018) polarised but I will keep pushing for it, including throughout this entire post #sorrynotsorry.
Best Original Screenplay
Likely Bets:
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Roma
Unlikely but Worthy:
Bad Times at the El Royale
Screenplays are always a funny thing to try and judge when you haven't actually read them but every year, me and thousands of others try our best and so let's give it another go this year. Original Screenplay is home to plenty of wack and/or outsider films and no film proves that more than likely nominee Eighth Grade. I haven't actually seen it yet because for some infuriating reason, there's yet to be a UK release but it's earned nothing but praise, mostly for the script. Bo Burnham was a YouTube sketch artist and stand-up comedian before he wrote the script and so it's not hard to imagine him following in the footsteps of Kumail Nanjiani last year with The Big Sick (which Burnham was actually in) by being the funny screenplay nominee that gets no other nominations. Speaking of funny scripts, The Favourite is another likely pick, although one that could make it just because it's one of those films that gets nominations in basically everything. With that said though, The Favourite is really funny and structured in a very original way, being key signifiers of a good script to people who haven't actually read the script. Roma is another film that will get nominated just for being Roma and so it doesn't really matter how good it is. I have no strong feelings on the screenplay but in fairness, I think it's a film whose balance is gentle and near unnoticeable which is usually a sign the screenplay is working. What I do want to give credit to, especially as there's such a minimal chance of it getting recognised, is Bad Times at the El Royale. It's got the structure style and dialogue of a Tarantino film (which the Academy love) but very few people saw it. I did, however, and was smitten by the electric pace which never slowed, despite being two and a half hours long. Just for that, Drew Goddard deserves an Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Bets:
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Unlikely but Worthy:
Suspiria
Adapted Screenplay seems to be an interesting field this year, starting off easy with A Star is Born. It's losing a little bit of momentum already but it adapts a story as old as time to our modern age, in a way that makes it feel modern. It's also just one of those frontrunner films that seems destined to get a nomination here because it gets nominations in everything. One film whose Best Picture chances seem shaky but whose screenplay is too electric to ignore is the slightly annoyingly named BlacKkKlansman. Spike Lee often delivers interesting and highly charged scripts (Oldboy aside) and Black Klansman is no exception, taking you on a roller coaster of the most varied emotions imaginable in a way so much more effective than I was expecting. Plus, there's Trump bashing at the end and the Academy would love to push for progressiveness. I haven't seen Can You Ever Forgive Me? yet but it's a story about writers and writing, hence screenplay nomination seems likely. It should be no surprise that as my personal choice for adapted screenplay, I want Suspiria up here. The key reason is the emphasis on that word, "adapted". Suspiria (2018) is so radically different from Suspiria (1977) and moves around the pieces from the first film to create something that is so joyously and radically different, making it basically the perfect example of how to do an adapted screenplay.
Best Director
Likely Bets:
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
Unlikely but Worthy:
Luca Guadagnino for Suspiria
Best Director is often a little bit of a filler award for the Oscars who never really know what diffirentiates the best director and so most of the nominations will just be holdovers from Best Picture. Still, a lot of the time they like to look out for their favourites and despite not being nominated here before, Bradley Cooper is certainly a favourite. A Star is Born is Cooper's debut and it's a fine film that's pretty well made so even if I don't think it will win Best Director, the Academy love him. Instead, I think it will come down to two foreign auteurs, one of whom is Greek director Yorgos Lanthimos. I love his work and think it's some of the most interesting stuff being made right now and The Favourite, while not his best work, is his most accessible piece and one I imagine the Academy being ready to finally reward. Speaking of though, Alfonso Cuaron is part of a trio of Mexican directors (the other two being Guillermo Del Toro and Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu) who have been absolutely crushing it at the Oscars and with his gorgeous passion project Roma, a direcotiral nom is an absolute given. When it comes to who I want to get a nomination though... Well, it's obviously Luca Guadagnino for Suspiria. He took a film that is so beloved in the horror community and made something so daringly new out of it, while also capturing some of his directorial style in the midst of the madness. I love it and will not stop championing it anytime soon.
Best Supporting Actor
Likely Bets:
Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Unlikely but Worthy:
Chris Hemsworth for Bad Times at the El Royale
Slightly limp category here, although there are a few bright spots, one of whom is obviously ma boi Timothee Chalamet. He was ROBBED of his Oscar last year for Call Me By Your Name (as was everyone apart from James Ivory) and while Beautiful Boy as a film is nothing close to that, he still delivers another incredible performance. It also has the benefit of being a real person and a drug addict character which are instant nominations. Another real life character, this time in a film I haven't seen, is Mahershala Ali for Green Book. The film itself has come under some fire but Ali just won a Golden Globe for his performance, meaning that his chance of a nomination is almost guaranteed. The biggest question mark in this list for me is ANOTHER true life character from Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?. I've tried to stay away from too many details about the film so I can properly enjoy it but Grant has been picking up nominations all along the circuit and while a win seems unlikely for him, he has a solid chance of nomination. My personal choice for this list is maybe the most unlikely choice of the entire bunch, in Chris Hemsworth from Bad Times at the El Royale. Sure, it's hardly a deep or meaningful role but it's the kind of character who isn't on screen a lot but whose presence is always felt and GOD DAMN, that swagger he carries when he does turn up. Like I say, it's such a long shot it's a joke but as far as supporting roles that captivated me, I'd be hard pushed to find better than Hemsworth.
Best Supporting Actress
Likely Bets:
Emma Stone for The Favourite
Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Unlikely but Worthy:
Tilda Swinton for Suspiria
There's many great actresses who could get nominated here but I only get three choices and I want to keep my winning streak up, which sadly means I'm preparing for the fact that Amy Adams might get snubbed again. Two of the best bets going happen to be from the same film which is a rare thing, those two women being Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz from The Favourite. The film is brilliant and a large part of that is the performances at the centre. For my money, Weisz puts in the better performance but that's not what we're trying to work out here and both are given equal time to show their range, earning their likely nominations with ease. However, one actress who seems like a lock whose quality I can't yet comment on is Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Haven't seen it, can't wait to see it but she just won the Golden Globe for it and is apparently brilliant so don't bet against her. Someone you sadly can bet against is Tilda Swinton from, yup, Suspiria. She plays three absolutely crazy roles in the film although if you have to single out one, go for Madame Blanc. She brings her typical enigmatic energy to that part and it's a role whose depth only flowers on a second viewing but will obviously not get a nomination because Suspiria is "too weird" and "quite pretentious" and "makes people too nauseous".
Best Actor
Likely Bets:
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Christian Bale for Vice
Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Unlikely but Worthy:
Ryan Gosling for First Man
Honestly, it's a slightly bland field up front for Best Actor but I'm still going to try and squeeze some joy from these chaps. First up, let's talk the elephant in the room, Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. I don't think I've properly gotten into how much I genuinely hate that film (and unfortunately, more on that later) but one thing I will say is genuinely good about it is Rami Malek. He's not Oscar worthy in the film but he won a Golden Globe and that means we have to take this awful film seriously now. Hooray. One actor who is great in a movie with music (that apparently isn't a musical) is Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born. I've gone off the guy a little since American Sniper but he redeems himself here with a great role. Maybe not Oscar great but like I said earlier, the Academy love them some Cooper. Current frontrunner though is Christian Bale for Vice because LOOK AT THE PHOTO UP THERE! The Academy loves a good transformative performance (just look at Gary Oldman last year) and so while I haven't seen Vice yet (very excited), Bale seems likely to bag another nomination. My outside choice here is probably the most likely of all the outside choices on this post but I've gone for Ryan Gosling in First Man because that film has been losing steam ever since the absurd flag controversy. Gosling is typically brilliant in the film and aside from technical elements (especially score and cinematography), I think he's really the best shot the film stands at any recognition. God do I hope I'm wrong about that though
Best Actress
Likely Bets:
Glen Close for The Wife
Lady Gaga for A Star is Born
Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Unlikely but Worthy:
Toni Collette for Hereditary
This could well be the closest competition of all the non-Best Picture nominees and I think it says a lot that I've seen all three and genuinely believe that they all deserve to be nominated for absolutely superb work. First up is Glen Close who has the misfortune of sharing a "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" position with Amy Adams, both getting nominated countless times yet never winning. Many have said this will be her year but regardless, you can't ignore her brilliant work in The Wife, a performance that elevates the entire film massively. Speaking of, I was astonished by how much I fell in love with Lady Gaga in A Star is Born. Sure, maybe she's kind of playing herself but as someone who wasn't a big fan of hers before, she had a presence that I could never take my eyes off (so yeah, I just wanted to get one more look at her, I MADE THE REFERENCE) and all my favourite moments in the film were ones she controlled completely. At the complete opposite end of control is Olivia Colman in the favourite. She's slowly been making herself much more known in America and this crowning jewel marks the moment that mainstream audiences will love her. Plus, she's just dominating every awards ceremony around, of course she'll get nominated. Unfortunately, one actress whose chances have been entirely scuppered just by the genre of her film is Toni Collette for Hereditary. For my money, I think she could have given the best performance of last year, both getting to play the massive emotions and adding extra weight to much smaller stuff. Unfortunately, it's a horror film and those can only do well with a huge awards push which, sadly, Hereditary and Collette does not have. Quick applause for me not picking Suspiria though.
Best Picture
Likely Bets:
A Star is Born
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
Green Book
Bohemian Rhapsody
Unlikely but Worthy:
Suspiria
Shoplifters
So we're at the big one and the one most of you probably just skipped down to without reading the others but that's fine, I'll make sure to try my absolute hardest here. I'm also predicting double the nominees because Best Picture at the Oscars can have up to ten nominees whereas all the others only have five. First up, A Star is Born has been something of a front runner ever since it first debuted at Venice and while some of that heat has died, a nomination seems almost a guarantee when it's a film as easy to enjoy as this. Roma is also a film that I think will get nominated but it will have a lot more difficulty getting there because it's black and white, foreign language and made by Netflix. Even with those factors, Roma is such a beautiful film and one whose acclaim elsewhere should be impossible to ignore for the Academy. One of two films I haven't seen out of my predictions is Barry Jenkins' follow-up to Moonlight, If Beale Street Could Talk. I've heard little rapturous buzz from awards shows but the critical acclaim is still roaring and hey, supporting film makers in minority groups is always a pretty swell thing to do. Going back to my comfort zone, The Favourite seems an absolute shoe in for a nomination and that makes me so happy. It's the most approachable work Lanthimos has ever done, propelled by superb performances and writing that shoots off the page, onto the screen and into your soul. Despite being a period drama, it is a breath of fresh air that would deserve any nominations it achieves.
Time for the troublesome twosome of awards season. One of those I'm still yet to see and that is Green Book. On the surface, it seemed a fairly charming and lightweight film about race relations but it's recently picked up A LOT of criticism for all sorts of stuff, from one producer's tweet about Muslims celebrating 9/11 to the director talking about how he enjoys flashing his penis at people. Even with all of that, it won a Golden Globe for Best Comedy so I'm expecting at least a nomination. Last of the likely nominations is my personal nemesis Bohemian Rhapsody. Aside from all the stuff about Bryan Singer and his alleged paedophilia, I think it's a poorly made film that gets by on the goodwill of Queen's legacy. Like Green Book though, it won a Golden Globe (for Best Drama) which means I sadly have to consider it a serious contender in the Best Picture race. The placement of Bohemian Rhapsody is so upsetting to me because of the films that now won't get nominated, one of which is (of course) Suspiria. No chance of nomination because it's too odd a film but it's my favourite of last year so I have to stick up for it. One another film that I think does deserve a shot though is Shoplifters, a Japanese movie in which not much happens. Being a foreign film that isn't Roma, I don't think it'll get a Best Picture nomination because subtitles are just too hard for the Academy but God does it deserve it. It's the kind of quiet, intimate drama that the Academy go crazy for but because you have to read the film as well as watch it, the uphill battle seems sadly likely to prove too much.
Well, that's my prediction list. Be sure to check back after the actual nominations are announced to see how well I did (or didn't) do at predicting everything.
Final Tally:
25 correct out of 30 nominations
0 out of 10 unlikely choices were nominated (not too surprising really)
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