Oscars 2018- My Final Predictions
Edit: this post was edited on 5th March to reflect how accurate my predictions were, with correct predictions in green and incorrect ones in red.
It's Oscar time baby and that means one final bit of wild speculation. Admittedly, I have actually seen most of the films by this point (thanks in no part to Exeter getting Lady Bird late) so with a couple of exceptions, it's time to weigh up all the nominees. I'm breaking my predictions down into two categories, one hopeful answer with the film or actor that I think should win and one much more cynical answer that predicts what will win. With that said, let's get into it!
Best Cinematography
Deserves to Win and Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
For my first prediction, I'm actually letting my cynical side down for a second and hoping that the academy right the wrongs from previous years in one of the most underrated categories in the ceremony. Unfortunately, I'm going to dismiss Mudbound fairly quickly as despite being worthy for finally giving a woman a cinematography nomination, it only has a few nice shots and is otherwise fairly pedestrian. Similarly, Darkest Hour has a couple of excellent looking shots but there's only so much jazzing up there can be done when it's just people talking. The other three are all huge contenders though that are very impressively shot. Dunkirk gets credit straight off the bat for filming on 70mm but it also uses a lot of inventive ways of visualising war that I have never seen before with things like the bombs appearing from a distance and moving towards the static camera gradually. The Shape of Water is the one I think could cause an upset and while I don't think it beats my pick, it is gorgeous, creating dozens of shots that could be framed. None of these could possibly challenge Blade Runner 2049 however. Roger Deakins has been arguably the greatest cinematographer working for a while now and has never won the Oscar but with this, the peak of his career, I hope he may. While Shape of Water offers dozens of gorgeous shots and Dunkirk offers lots of visual innovation, 2049 is jaw dropping from start to finish and creates images that we can only hope inspire the next generation of sci-fi directors. Hell, I'd personally say the film deserves it just because of the shot above this paragraph, a shot both stunning to look at and fascinating to consider the implications of. If Deakins doesn't win. We riot.
Best Score
Deserves to Win: Dunkirk
Will Win: The Shape of Water
I feel the Oscars have really dropped the ball with the Best Score nominations this year. Admittedly, there's plenty of great ones here but why The Last Jedi got nominated in the year of Good Time, A Ghost Story, Blade Runner 2049 and countless others is a mystery. Hell, even Lady Bird could have earned a spot here. Still, having had a good listen to each score again after seeing the films, there's plenty to enjoy here. For example, when I first saw Three Billboards on this list, I was confused but actually, it is used to subtle effect in the film. There's a few covers on there that pack real power and a few original compositions that are really rather good. The conversation only really gets worthwhile with the other three, starting with Phantom Thread. I'm not as in love with it as the critics are but it's a powerful score that moulds the film and certainly does a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to delivering the emotional power. As far as a winner is concerned, I see that going to The Shape of Water because it's a great score but also, it's a film that will probably sweep many of the production design based awards and score will probably end up falling into that. That is, it will unless people give Hans Zimmer's Dunkirk score a chance. Sure, it's his second best score of the year (Blade Runner 2049 being the best) but it's still cracking. Usually, I like to put a film score on in the back while I'm working but Dunkirk can't be on in the background because it is so all consuming. The intensity that Zimmer can build from music alone, no images, is astounding and I will never forget the experience of seeing this film in the cinema, largely due to him. Still, go seek out the score to Good Time, the real best score of the year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Deserves to Win and Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
I love the screenplay categories because it's where smaller films can usually get their time and this year is no exception. I'm going to just go through them in order of my favourites because on this rare instance, I think the Academy and I may agree on the winner. Mudbound is the weakest of the category and I have a theory that it's only nominated because of how many voice overs there are throughout the film (spoiler, it's a lot). Molly's Game is great and snappy like many of Aaron Sorkin's other scripts although I think the directing of the film does a little disservice to it, surely weakening it for voters. The Disaster Artist is great but I don't know if the script is really massively impressive. It's a story that really does tell itself. I'm amazed Logan has a nomination but honestly, it deserves it for the interesting ways it subverts the superhero genre. Of all of them though, the clear standout is my love of the season, Call Me By Your Name. I haven't read the original novel but through the dialogue and an interesting clipping of the narrative the story tells, CMBYN manages to utterly overwhelm, from start to finish.
Best Original Screenplay
Deserves to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri
Will Win: Lady Bird
Honestly, this year the Best Original Screenplay category is a seriously impressive on. Like, when The Big Sick is my least favourite of the group, you know it's good. Big Sick has done great to get nominated but like 20th Century Women last year, it should just be happy with the nom. Equally, Get Out deserves praise for being astoundingly original and making comedy and horror work together surprisingly well, plus it only gets stronger on a second viewing as the layers reveal themselves. Like another nomination here, it's much more a film that stands on its writing than its directing and I'm delighted Peele is getting recognised for that.The Shape of Water also deserves its place here for astounding originality and crafting a story that certainly kept me enchanted start to finish although actually this film is much more a director's work than a screenwriter's work. In the end, I think it comes down to one of two films, both of which I would be delighted to see win. My personal choice is Three Billboards, a lean and incredibly mean screenplay that represents the current peak of McDonagh's cinematic writing. You're never sure where you're going but you feel safe and when the dialogue is as scathingly funny, honest and brutal as it is here, you have to give McDonagh serious credit. However, as in Adapted Screenplay, I think voters will take this chance to reward a film that likely won't scoop Best Picture and go with Lady Bird. I truly did fall in love with Lady Bird and that's almost entirely down to Greta Gerwig's brilliant screenplay that strings together a series of moments in a way that feels far more coherent than it actually is. My suspicion is that this will win but whether it's Lady Bird or Angry Lady who takes the trophy, I will be delighted.
Best Director
Deserves to Win: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Like Best Score, there's a lot of people I personally would have put in this category over those who have made it in (Luca Guadagnino, Denis Villeneuve and probably other people with easier names) but it's still a good batch. Not to sound cynical but I think both first time directors Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele are here primarily as picks for the sake of diversity. Their films are both brilliant but mainly for their writing and the cynical part of me can't divorce the art from the fact that one is directed by a woman and the other by a black man. Still, they've made great films, I just don't think their directing is the best part of them. Paul Thomas Anderson was a surprise addition to this category but honestly, he does excellent work for Phantom Thread and earns his spot here in a very showy, deliberate display of his directorial craft, elevating the meaningless to vital. Still, Phantom Thread certainly isn't for everyone and much as it is a more impressive directorial project, I do like it less than Get Out and Lady Bird. That means the race comes down to two auteurs, one of whom will finally be getting his due this year. My personal choice would be Christopher Nolan as Dunkirk is both inherently Nolan-esque and a pure cinematic experience that remains unrivalled. Without someone as talented as Nolan at the helm, it's hard to say if it would have worked as well. The likely winner though is Guillermo del Toro and I will be very happy if he does win because his work is amazing. While Shape of Water isn't quite as incredible as Pan's Labyrinth, it's a film that, like Dunkirk, can only work because it is del Toro at the helm, orchestrating a love story that works despite everything. He's been sweeping most of the awards so expect del Toro to win but goddamn, be happy for that man, he deserves it.
Best Supporting Actor
Deserves to and Will Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
In a category that's sorely missing a bit of Michael Stuhlbarg from any of the three Best Picture nominees he was in, there's still plenty to like from the Best Supporting Actors, even if they set the standard for what seems to be predictable acting winners. One actor who wasn't a contender at all until a few months ago is Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World, a role he gives impressive gravitas to. Indeed, it's a movie he ends up carrying much of the force of, despite being not nearly as prevalent as Whalberg or Williams. Richard Jenkins is a delight in The Shape of Water but he doesn't stand much chance at winning because his work is much too subdued compared to the other explicitly powerful work in this category. My second choice here would probably be Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, not just because I wish that film had been nominated for more but also because he is the only big name in that film yet manages to be an emotional anchor. He's cold when he has to be but the warmth any good character needs is never too far from the surface. In the end though, it'll come down to the two boys from Three Billboards. Woody Harrelson is absolutely wonderful and with his narration at a couple of points, he is able to really give the big emotional punches of the film but he simply isn't in it enough to overpower Sam Rockwell. I've loved Rockwell for a good while now and his portrayal of Dixon is as interesting as the character himself. While this isn't his best role, I'm hoping it overpowers the backlash that Dixon as a character has received to give Rockwell the Oscar he has long deserved.
Best Supporting Actress
Deserves to Win: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Will Win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
More so than any of the other acting categories, Best Supporting Actress is doomed to have the performance which is clearly the best being overlooked but we'll get through the other nominees first. Mary J Blige is nominated for Mudbound which I personally don't get but plenty of other people who have seen and actually enjoyed Mudbound say she deserves it. Still, a win seems near impossible. Octavia Spencer has earned a nomination too and while I think her performance is great and adds a lot to the film, it's not quite Oscar worthy. Similar to basically any other category Phantom Thread is nominated for, Lesley Manville is nominated and despite being brilliant, the film is too niche. That brings us to the two who are really in contention with each other, Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney for their work as pushy mums in Lady Bird and I, Tonya respectively. Janney has been sweeping most of the awards shows and she plays a brilliant character. Except that's just it; she plays a character. Laurie Metcalf isn't going for the comically evil role and therefore she gets to flesh out her character completely. That she is able to seem so cruel on the surface but still have that underlying current of love for her daughter the whole way through is worthy of the award itself. If she wins, I will be delighted and she will have completely earned it but Janney will likely win again and that's fine.
Best Actor
Deserves to Win: Timothee Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name
Will Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
I confess, I haven't actually seen Denzel Washington's work in Roman J Israel Esq. but that's only because it isn't playing at all in my city and I think the fact that it isn't playing when all the other films are works as a swift nail in the coffin of Washington's chances. Daniel Kaluuya got a surprise nomination for Get Out and while I would have prioritised other performances (I will again fight the corner of Good Time and R Patz) he really is great. It's the small details in how Kaluuya reacts to all the slow building racism that makes Get Out as funny and as deeply uncomfortable as it is, being that he is the anchor point for the audience, and the scene in which he falls into The Sunken Place is only as iconic as it is because of him. Daniel Day-Lewis gained a nomination for his final ever performance (allegedly) in Phantom Thread. He is superb in the film and many in the academy may want to give him a leaving present of another Oscar but there are bigger fish in the pond this year. The one everyone thinks will win Best Actor is Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour. He's been a frontrunner since the initial screenings of the film and he certainly is excellent, being the buoyancy that that film needs. There is also the added bonus that this will finally give Oldman his well overdue Oscar win that has eluded him until now. Oldman is excellent but if it were up to me, Timothee Chalamet would be the one winning for his hypnotic role as Elio in Call Me By Your Name. It's no secret that I've fallen in love with this film but it is Chalamet who is the beating heart of it. Much of his work is subtle as he merely embodies a character so fully that he is no longer a character but alive, next to us, breathing although if you want showy, the final shot certainly offers that, a flair free demonstration of Chalamet's astonishing control. Oldman is certain to win but I will forever consider Chalamet a snub.
Best Actress
Deserves to Win and Will Win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There is one clear Best Actress this year but I'm not going to discredit the other actresses, some of whom are also giving incredibly impressive performances. Meryl Streep is probably the best thing about The Post and does give a great performance but it's just not at the level of any of the other actresses. Saoirse Ronan is absolutely the beating heart of Lady Bird and the reason it works so well although it's not easy to work out how much she's having to really act. That said, her accent work is brilliant and there's a couple of moments where just looking at her face conveys all the emotions that scene is there for. In her first ever lead performance, Margot Robbie steals every scene of I, Tonya and she's a joy to watch. Plus, depending on how much you want to trust the story of the film, there's plenty you can read into every little expression of hers, especially those in the "interviews". For any other year, the clear winner would have to be Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water. She will steal your heart and warm your soul, all without saying a word. That she can say so much with just her physicality is astounding and I wanted it to be my favourite performance of the bunch. However, much like her character in the film, Frances McDormand comes in and obliterates all others around her. She delivers her lines hilariously, keeps you rooting for her character but then when another character points out how far she's gone, that regret is in every inch of her face. No other actress gives a performance like McDormand and sure, part of that is that no other actress had a role like this but equally, can you see anyone else pulling off a role this complex in such an effortless manner?
Best Picture
Deserves to Win: Call Me By Your Name
Will Win: The Shape of Water
While some of the categories are already locked down, there's four films I seriously had to consider predicting for Best Picture and a few that are less likely that I adore, making this one of the best years for Best Picture since... Well, last year but these two years are outliers. I'm going to break them down in order of preference until we get to the eventual winner which means I can get Darkest Hour out of the way quickly. It's an okay film with a great performance at the centre and some real pacing issues but some will enjoy the historical side. Equally, The Post fits into the classic mould of "Oscar bait movie" and there is real talent in there but it lacks that spark that keeps the rest of the films here alive. I enjoyed Phantom Thread quite a bit more than those two but it will leave many voters cold and is an unlikely winner, as its mere presence on this list is pretty impressive. From here on though, I love all of these films, have seen them all at least twice and would be delighted if any of them won. I'm still going to list them by personal preference but I'll try and break down much closer the case for their success.
Get Out is a genuinely smart and quite funny horror film that has done great work to make it this far, being both a genre film and a February release. Its brilliant take on modern racism in America is worth commending and the second viewing is as essential as it is brilliant, but it still fell into some of the cliches of horror it seemed better than. Dunkirk was one of the best cinema experiences I had all year but it's why I'm terrified to watch it again. That visceral experience cannot translate as well to the small screen, which is likely the form most Academy voters will watch it on. I think I need more time for it to sink in but Lady Bird was this brilliant and pure bolt of emotion into my heart. It may be down to my personal experience and the film certainly isn't a showy demonstration of talent but it's riding the wave of #metoo and no one seems to dislike it. Three Billboards is legitimately amazing but the problem is that big wave of controversy that is haunting it. McDonagh has said that this heated debate is the point of the film (and I agree) but that will weaken its chances. My personal favourite of these is Call Me By Your Name, a stunningly sensual experience that I just keep going back to. The people that love it love it (very much me) but not everyone gets it and there's that cynical part of me that worries the Academy won't give a gay film Best Picture two years in a row because they already "did" that issue. That leaves my predicted winner as The Shape of Water. Yeah, it's the lady and fishman love story but that the film is able to transcend that and warm the hearts of everyone is an incredible feat. If the controversy around Three Billboards eclipses the actual film (which I sadly think it will) then The Shape of Water is clearly poised to swoop in at the last minute and take victory, something I will be much happier about than I sound.
And so ends my predictions for this year. Check back here next week once the winners are out to see how well I was able to predict the winners and whether any of my dream picks came true. I hope you enjoyed the Awards Season coverage this year, there'll be one more post in two weeks but after that, we're headed straight back into really stupid cinema again. Hell yeah.
Correct predictions: 9 out of 10
Times me and the Academy agreed on winners: 4 out of 10
It's Oscar time baby and that means one final bit of wild speculation. Admittedly, I have actually seen most of the films by this point (thanks in no part to Exeter getting Lady Bird late) so with a couple of exceptions, it's time to weigh up all the nominees. I'm breaking my predictions down into two categories, one hopeful answer with the film or actor that I think should win and one much more cynical answer that predicts what will win. With that said, let's get into it!
Best Cinematography
Deserves to Win and Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
For my first prediction, I'm actually letting my cynical side down for a second and hoping that the academy right the wrongs from previous years in one of the most underrated categories in the ceremony. Unfortunately, I'm going to dismiss Mudbound fairly quickly as despite being worthy for finally giving a woman a cinematography nomination, it only has a few nice shots and is otherwise fairly pedestrian. Similarly, Darkest Hour has a couple of excellent looking shots but there's only so much jazzing up there can be done when it's just people talking. The other three are all huge contenders though that are very impressively shot. Dunkirk gets credit straight off the bat for filming on 70mm but it also uses a lot of inventive ways of visualising war that I have never seen before with things like the bombs appearing from a distance and moving towards the static camera gradually. The Shape of Water is the one I think could cause an upset and while I don't think it beats my pick, it is gorgeous, creating dozens of shots that could be framed. None of these could possibly challenge Blade Runner 2049 however. Roger Deakins has been arguably the greatest cinematographer working for a while now and has never won the Oscar but with this, the peak of his career, I hope he may. While Shape of Water offers dozens of gorgeous shots and Dunkirk offers lots of visual innovation, 2049 is jaw dropping from start to finish and creates images that we can only hope inspire the next generation of sci-fi directors. Hell, I'd personally say the film deserves it just because of the shot above this paragraph, a shot both stunning to look at and fascinating to consider the implications of. If Deakins doesn't win. We riot.
Best Score
Deserves to Win: Dunkirk
Will Win: The Shape of Water
I feel the Oscars have really dropped the ball with the Best Score nominations this year. Admittedly, there's plenty of great ones here but why The Last Jedi got nominated in the year of Good Time, A Ghost Story, Blade Runner 2049 and countless others is a mystery. Hell, even Lady Bird could have earned a spot here. Still, having had a good listen to each score again after seeing the films, there's plenty to enjoy here. For example, when I first saw Three Billboards on this list, I was confused but actually, it is used to subtle effect in the film. There's a few covers on there that pack real power and a few original compositions that are really rather good. The conversation only really gets worthwhile with the other three, starting with Phantom Thread. I'm not as in love with it as the critics are but it's a powerful score that moulds the film and certainly does a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to delivering the emotional power. As far as a winner is concerned, I see that going to The Shape of Water because it's a great score but also, it's a film that will probably sweep many of the production design based awards and score will probably end up falling into that. That is, it will unless people give Hans Zimmer's Dunkirk score a chance. Sure, it's his second best score of the year (Blade Runner 2049 being the best) but it's still cracking. Usually, I like to put a film score on in the back while I'm working but Dunkirk can't be on in the background because it is so all consuming. The intensity that Zimmer can build from music alone, no images, is astounding and I will never forget the experience of seeing this film in the cinema, largely due to him. Still, go seek out the score to Good Time, the real best score of the year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Deserves to Win and Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
I love the screenplay categories because it's where smaller films can usually get their time and this year is no exception. I'm going to just go through them in order of my favourites because on this rare instance, I think the Academy and I may agree on the winner. Mudbound is the weakest of the category and I have a theory that it's only nominated because of how many voice overs there are throughout the film (spoiler, it's a lot). Molly's Game is great and snappy like many of Aaron Sorkin's other scripts although I think the directing of the film does a little disservice to it, surely weakening it for voters. The Disaster Artist is great but I don't know if the script is really massively impressive. It's a story that really does tell itself. I'm amazed Logan has a nomination but honestly, it deserves it for the interesting ways it subverts the superhero genre. Of all of them though, the clear standout is my love of the season, Call Me By Your Name. I haven't read the original novel but through the dialogue and an interesting clipping of the narrative the story tells, CMBYN manages to utterly overwhelm, from start to finish.
Best Original Screenplay
Deserves to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri
Will Win: Lady Bird
Honestly, this year the Best Original Screenplay category is a seriously impressive on. Like, when The Big Sick is my least favourite of the group, you know it's good. Big Sick has done great to get nominated but like 20th Century Women last year, it should just be happy with the nom. Equally, Get Out deserves praise for being astoundingly original and making comedy and horror work together surprisingly well, plus it only gets stronger on a second viewing as the layers reveal themselves. Like another nomination here, it's much more a film that stands on its writing than its directing and I'm delighted Peele is getting recognised for that.The Shape of Water also deserves its place here for astounding originality and crafting a story that certainly kept me enchanted start to finish although actually this film is much more a director's work than a screenwriter's work. In the end, I think it comes down to one of two films, both of which I would be delighted to see win. My personal choice is Three Billboards, a lean and incredibly mean screenplay that represents the current peak of McDonagh's cinematic writing. You're never sure where you're going but you feel safe and when the dialogue is as scathingly funny, honest and brutal as it is here, you have to give McDonagh serious credit. However, as in Adapted Screenplay, I think voters will take this chance to reward a film that likely won't scoop Best Picture and go with Lady Bird. I truly did fall in love with Lady Bird and that's almost entirely down to Greta Gerwig's brilliant screenplay that strings together a series of moments in a way that feels far more coherent than it actually is. My suspicion is that this will win but whether it's Lady Bird or Angry Lady who takes the trophy, I will be delighted.
Best Director
Deserves to Win: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Like Best Score, there's a lot of people I personally would have put in this category over those who have made it in (Luca Guadagnino, Denis Villeneuve and probably other people with easier names) but it's still a good batch. Not to sound cynical but I think both first time directors Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele are here primarily as picks for the sake of diversity. Their films are both brilliant but mainly for their writing and the cynical part of me can't divorce the art from the fact that one is directed by a woman and the other by a black man. Still, they've made great films, I just don't think their directing is the best part of them. Paul Thomas Anderson was a surprise addition to this category but honestly, he does excellent work for Phantom Thread and earns his spot here in a very showy, deliberate display of his directorial craft, elevating the meaningless to vital. Still, Phantom Thread certainly isn't for everyone and much as it is a more impressive directorial project, I do like it less than Get Out and Lady Bird. That means the race comes down to two auteurs, one of whom will finally be getting his due this year. My personal choice would be Christopher Nolan as Dunkirk is both inherently Nolan-esque and a pure cinematic experience that remains unrivalled. Without someone as talented as Nolan at the helm, it's hard to say if it would have worked as well. The likely winner though is Guillermo del Toro and I will be very happy if he does win because his work is amazing. While Shape of Water isn't quite as incredible as Pan's Labyrinth, it's a film that, like Dunkirk, can only work because it is del Toro at the helm, orchestrating a love story that works despite everything. He's been sweeping most of the awards so expect del Toro to win but goddamn, be happy for that man, he deserves it.
Best Supporting Actor
Deserves to and Will Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
In a category that's sorely missing a bit of Michael Stuhlbarg from any of the three Best Picture nominees he was in, there's still plenty to like from the Best Supporting Actors, even if they set the standard for what seems to be predictable acting winners. One actor who wasn't a contender at all until a few months ago is Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World, a role he gives impressive gravitas to. Indeed, it's a movie he ends up carrying much of the force of, despite being not nearly as prevalent as Whalberg or Williams. Richard Jenkins is a delight in The Shape of Water but he doesn't stand much chance at winning because his work is much too subdued compared to the other explicitly powerful work in this category. My second choice here would probably be Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, not just because I wish that film had been nominated for more but also because he is the only big name in that film yet manages to be an emotional anchor. He's cold when he has to be but the warmth any good character needs is never too far from the surface. In the end though, it'll come down to the two boys from Three Billboards. Woody Harrelson is absolutely wonderful and with his narration at a couple of points, he is able to really give the big emotional punches of the film but he simply isn't in it enough to overpower Sam Rockwell. I've loved Rockwell for a good while now and his portrayal of Dixon is as interesting as the character himself. While this isn't his best role, I'm hoping it overpowers the backlash that Dixon as a character has received to give Rockwell the Oscar he has long deserved.
Best Supporting Actress
Deserves to Win: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Will Win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
More so than any of the other acting categories, Best Supporting Actress is doomed to have the performance which is clearly the best being overlooked but we'll get through the other nominees first. Mary J Blige is nominated for Mudbound which I personally don't get but plenty of other people who have seen and actually enjoyed Mudbound say she deserves it. Still, a win seems near impossible. Octavia Spencer has earned a nomination too and while I think her performance is great and adds a lot to the film, it's not quite Oscar worthy. Similar to basically any other category Phantom Thread is nominated for, Lesley Manville is nominated and despite being brilliant, the film is too niche. That brings us to the two who are really in contention with each other, Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney for their work as pushy mums in Lady Bird and I, Tonya respectively. Janney has been sweeping most of the awards shows and she plays a brilliant character. Except that's just it; she plays a character. Laurie Metcalf isn't going for the comically evil role and therefore she gets to flesh out her character completely. That she is able to seem so cruel on the surface but still have that underlying current of love for her daughter the whole way through is worthy of the award itself. If she wins, I will be delighted and she will have completely earned it but Janney will likely win again and that's fine.
Best Actor
Deserves to Win: Timothee Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name
Will Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
I confess, I haven't actually seen Denzel Washington's work in Roman J Israel Esq. but that's only because it isn't playing at all in my city and I think the fact that it isn't playing when all the other films are works as a swift nail in the coffin of Washington's chances. Daniel Kaluuya got a surprise nomination for Get Out and while I would have prioritised other performances (I will again fight the corner of Good Time and R Patz) he really is great. It's the small details in how Kaluuya reacts to all the slow building racism that makes Get Out as funny and as deeply uncomfortable as it is, being that he is the anchor point for the audience, and the scene in which he falls into The Sunken Place is only as iconic as it is because of him. Daniel Day-Lewis gained a nomination for his final ever performance (allegedly) in Phantom Thread. He is superb in the film and many in the academy may want to give him a leaving present of another Oscar but there are bigger fish in the pond this year. The one everyone thinks will win Best Actor is Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour. He's been a frontrunner since the initial screenings of the film and he certainly is excellent, being the buoyancy that that film needs. There is also the added bonus that this will finally give Oldman his well overdue Oscar win that has eluded him until now. Oldman is excellent but if it were up to me, Timothee Chalamet would be the one winning for his hypnotic role as Elio in Call Me By Your Name. It's no secret that I've fallen in love with this film but it is Chalamet who is the beating heart of it. Much of his work is subtle as he merely embodies a character so fully that he is no longer a character but alive, next to us, breathing although if you want showy, the final shot certainly offers that, a flair free demonstration of Chalamet's astonishing control. Oldman is certain to win but I will forever consider Chalamet a snub.
Best Actress
Deserves to Win and Will Win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There is one clear Best Actress this year but I'm not going to discredit the other actresses, some of whom are also giving incredibly impressive performances. Meryl Streep is probably the best thing about The Post and does give a great performance but it's just not at the level of any of the other actresses. Saoirse Ronan is absolutely the beating heart of Lady Bird and the reason it works so well although it's not easy to work out how much she's having to really act. That said, her accent work is brilliant and there's a couple of moments where just looking at her face conveys all the emotions that scene is there for. In her first ever lead performance, Margot Robbie steals every scene of I, Tonya and she's a joy to watch. Plus, depending on how much you want to trust the story of the film, there's plenty you can read into every little expression of hers, especially those in the "interviews". For any other year, the clear winner would have to be Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water. She will steal your heart and warm your soul, all without saying a word. That she can say so much with just her physicality is astounding and I wanted it to be my favourite performance of the bunch. However, much like her character in the film, Frances McDormand comes in and obliterates all others around her. She delivers her lines hilariously, keeps you rooting for her character but then when another character points out how far she's gone, that regret is in every inch of her face. No other actress gives a performance like McDormand and sure, part of that is that no other actress had a role like this but equally, can you see anyone else pulling off a role this complex in such an effortless manner?
Best Picture
Deserves to Win: Call Me By Your Name
Will Win: The Shape of Water
While some of the categories are already locked down, there's four films I seriously had to consider predicting for Best Picture and a few that are less likely that I adore, making this one of the best years for Best Picture since... Well, last year but these two years are outliers. I'm going to break them down in order of preference until we get to the eventual winner which means I can get Darkest Hour out of the way quickly. It's an okay film with a great performance at the centre and some real pacing issues but some will enjoy the historical side. Equally, The Post fits into the classic mould of "Oscar bait movie" and there is real talent in there but it lacks that spark that keeps the rest of the films here alive. I enjoyed Phantom Thread quite a bit more than those two but it will leave many voters cold and is an unlikely winner, as its mere presence on this list is pretty impressive. From here on though, I love all of these films, have seen them all at least twice and would be delighted if any of them won. I'm still going to list them by personal preference but I'll try and break down much closer the case for their success.
Get Out is a genuinely smart and quite funny horror film that has done great work to make it this far, being both a genre film and a February release. Its brilliant take on modern racism in America is worth commending and the second viewing is as essential as it is brilliant, but it still fell into some of the cliches of horror it seemed better than. Dunkirk was one of the best cinema experiences I had all year but it's why I'm terrified to watch it again. That visceral experience cannot translate as well to the small screen, which is likely the form most Academy voters will watch it on. I think I need more time for it to sink in but Lady Bird was this brilliant and pure bolt of emotion into my heart. It may be down to my personal experience and the film certainly isn't a showy demonstration of talent but it's riding the wave of #metoo and no one seems to dislike it. Three Billboards is legitimately amazing but the problem is that big wave of controversy that is haunting it. McDonagh has said that this heated debate is the point of the film (and I agree) but that will weaken its chances. My personal favourite of these is Call Me By Your Name, a stunningly sensual experience that I just keep going back to. The people that love it love it (very much me) but not everyone gets it and there's that cynical part of me that worries the Academy won't give a gay film Best Picture two years in a row because they already "did" that issue. That leaves my predicted winner as The Shape of Water. Yeah, it's the lady and fishman love story but that the film is able to transcend that and warm the hearts of everyone is an incredible feat. If the controversy around Three Billboards eclipses the actual film (which I sadly think it will) then The Shape of Water is clearly poised to swoop in at the last minute and take victory, something I will be much happier about than I sound.
And so ends my predictions for this year. Check back here next week once the winners are out to see how well I was able to predict the winners and whether any of my dream picks came true. I hope you enjoyed the Awards Season coverage this year, there'll be one more post in two weeks but after that, we're headed straight back into really stupid cinema again. Hell yeah.
Correct predictions: 9 out of 10
Times me and the Academy agreed on winners: 4 out of 10
Comments
Post a Comment