Oscars 2018- My Nomination Predictions
Edit: this post was edited on 23rd of January to show how average a job I did in predicting the nominees, green highlight means I got it right, red means I didn't with a total score at the bottom.
Every year, I get much too heavily invested in Awards Season and lose track of stuff like relationships, work and sometimes even eating. This year is no different and with the nominations for the 2018 Academy Awards (Oscars) being announced a week today, I decided to try my experienced yet highly unprofessional hand at predicting who will get nominated. For each category, I'm going to try and pick three safe bets but also throw in one that is less likely but deserves the nom. Come back in about six weeks if you're looking for final winner guesses but for now, lets speculate wildly on films, many of which I haven't seen yet.
Best Cinematography
Likely Bets:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Unlikely but Worthy:
Call Me By Your Name
This has been a beautiful looking year for film if nothing else and as far as I'm concerned, no film epitomised this more than Blade Runner 2049. Sure, the Academy don't usually like big budget movies but 2049 is highly unique and when you can screen cap any single shot from the film and find an image that will make your jaw drop, you're a shoo in for Cinematography. Also beautiful but with much more practical effects is Dunkirk, a film whose cinematography (among other things) draws the audience straight into the claustrophobic hell the characters exist in. In a similar vein, impressive creature feature The Shape of Water with its lush look at dingy environments stands a good chance of a nomination as it's a big awards contender and del Toro rarely makes a bad looking film. My unlikely but worthy choice here is Call Me By Your Name, pretty much because cinematography is one of the things about it you could over look when there is so much else going on. I attest that it is vital however as the film works (beautifully) because of the tone and much of that is done by the camera dancing around the lush Italian setting. Still, I don't think anything can really challenge Blade Runner but the Academy love an upset.
Best Original Screenplay
Likely Bets:
Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
The Post
Unlikely but Worthy:
Wind River
Like with cinematography, as far as I'm concerned there's only one clear choice for winner here but I have to pick three nominations, that's the nature of this post. The clearest frontrunner is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Martin McDonagh always writes great scripts that are outstandingly original and Three Billboards is no exception. It has a better chance at winning this prize because Three Billboards has been garnering bigger award buzz than McDonagh's other films so we can all keep our fingers crossed. Speaking of original, there wasn't a much more original movie last year than Get Out. Unfortunately, it may be too original for most of the major categories but screenplay is always where films like this get their day and for the sake of Peele's wonderful movie, I hope it's the case here. I'm yet to see The Post but I hear it's great and if Award shows love one thing, it's Spielberg. Finally, I'm really hoping there's some love for Taylor Sheridan's Wind River. Sure, it's not quite as excellent as Hell or High Water but it's another lean and impressive script from Sheridan that deserves as much acclaim.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Bets:
Molly's Game
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Unlikely but Worthy:
Blade Runner 2049
Currently, Aaron Sorkin is probably the closest that Hollywood has to a household name in screenwriting and with Molly's Game, he reminds us why. It's a film full of great speeches but the moment to moment dialogue is gripping too and is the reason the film works so well. Next, I'm hoping to see plenty of love for Call Me By Your Name. I'm not familiar with the source material but everything about the film works together to create an absolutely absorbing atmosphere and there's a few monologues scattered around that are shockingly powerful. Being an odd but likely addition to the party is The Disaster Artist, another film some may want to reward but can't find an appropriate way to. Admittedly, the original book is better but man if this isn't a film full of laughs that adapts what could sometimes be upsetting events into approachable ways. What really deserves the recognition but is unlikely to is Blade Runner 2049. That the intricate tapestry of a story is able to be weaved together as it is is only possible because of the script and I want someone to love it. Please.
Best Director
Likely Bets:
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg for The Post
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Unlikely but Worthy:
Darren Aronofsky for mother!
Alright, I've only seen one of the core picks here so this'll be fun. Del Toro apparently has his fingerprints all over The Shape of Water and it is for this reason that the film has delighted many, including the voters at the Golden Globes who gave him Best Director. Indeed, it is this aspect that makes me want to see it so much because no one else will make big films this weird. Steven Spielberg is another choice who feels fairly obvious despite the fact I haven't seen The Post. Spielberg is a perennial favourite of the Oscars and if this follows the trajectory of fellow Tom Hanks vehicle Bridge of Spies, it'll get the nomination. One director who I can speak for is Christopher Nolan who made one of his best films yet with Dunkirk. The decision to film most of the film practically was all his and makes a visceral experience that deserves recognition. Now, due to the sheer polarising nature of this film (like, way more so than The Last Jedi) a nomination seems near impossible but I would love to see Darren Aronofsky get nominated for mother!. It's a challenging film and there are directorial decisions made that are brave but mostly, any director who can stage a final third of the film like here deserves plenty of accolades thrown their way.
Best Supporting Actor
Likely Bets:
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name
Unlikely but Worthy:
Barry Keoghan for The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Alright, we're finally in categories that people care about, so much so that this may be the first one you're actually properly reading. One big frontrunner right now is Willem Dafoe for his excellent turn in the wonderful The Florida Project. As the manager of the motel where the film is set, he brings warmth to a character who could easily be unlikable and it is in his moments of conflict where the film has its biggest triumphs. A more unpredictable performance comes from the always excellent Sam Rockwell as the racist cop in Three Billboards. My hope is that this is a sort of "lifetime achievement" award for all the good but unrecognised work in films like Moon and Seven Psychopaths although equally, Rockwell opens up a window into this character that it's hard to imagine any other actor offering, already picking up a Golden Globe for his role. Equally though, Michael Stuhlbarg is just wonderful in Call Me By Your Name. There's not a poor element to the film and he is no exception with his ending monologue being one of great power. One actor who stands very little chance of a nomination but completely deserves it is Barry Keoghan for The Killing of a Sacred Deer. Most people will recognise him from Dunkirk but here, he is terrifying. There's just something about the way he glares at the characters and audience that never failed to terrify me.
Best Supporting Actress
Likely Bets:
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
Unlikely but Worthy:
Lois Smith for Marjorie Prime
Literally seen none of the frontrunners here so this will be quick. I, Tonya is something of an outsider bet for all but supporting actress with Allison Janney giving what is meant to be one of her best ever performances. Lady Bird, however, is a film with a hell of a lot of buzz and Laurie Metcalf is garnering much of it. Both she and Janney play mothers of the central characters and while Janney is getting acclaim for how far she takes it, Metcalf is winning people over for a more naturalistic take. Janney did win the Golden Globe though so she has the upper hand right now. In a non-mother supporting role is Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water who many are saying is just as delightful as her Oscar nominated turn in Hidden Figures. For my weird pick, I'm going for a film that you probably haven't heard of and definitely haven't seen (unless your name is Will Wightman, hey bud, hope you made it this far) with Lois Smith's performance in Marjorie Prime. She is the heart of the film and gives one of the most believable portrayals of Alzheimers disease that I've ever seen. Track down the film, it's a little slow but a thought provoking watch and one where the performances are guaranteed to delight.
Best Actor
Likely Bets:
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks for The Post
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Unlikely but Worthy:
Jeremy Renner for Wind River
There's one major frontrunner as of right now but there's still plenty of interesting challengers in the race for Best Actor. Chief among them is Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, the film he has said will be his last. That fact alone puts him in contention but many are saying that he is absolutely astounding in this film, giving one last reminder of why he's considered one of the greatest actors ever. Speaking of, Tom Hanks stands a great chance at nomination for The Post, even if a win seems unlikely. He's always great and I think it's a safe bet to say that The Post will be no exception for him. The one to beat right now though is Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. The film itself is pretty decent but is made notable by Oldman's astonishing portrayal of Winston Churchill. He has always been one of the greatest working actors for the many decades he's been working and Darkest Hour seems to be the peak of that. Someone who is unfortunately getting looked over though is Jeremy Renner for the excellent Wind River. Admittedly, he was a little better in The Hurt Locker but this is still an excellent performance from Renner, balancing multiple sides that we don't truly appreciate until looking back over the movie. It's subtle and that may be the downfall of the performance as many simply overlook it. Wind River deserves better, as does Renner and you should seek it out.
Best Actress
Likely Bets:
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep for The Post
Saorise Ronan for Lady Bird
Unlikely but Worthy:
Aubrey Plaza for Ingrid Goes West
When it comes to winners, this is probably now a two horse race but as we currently stand, that doesn't matter, I just need three nominees to predict to sound smart. Frances McDormand is the only one whose performance I've actually seen and I can definitely vouch for her. She's a tornado, blowing through a town and causing rampant destruction with her multi-layered performance as the mother of a murdered daughter that will occasionally make you question your allegiance. It also doesn't hurt that she got the Golden Globe for it last week. Meryl Streep will get a nomination for sure in Steven Spielberg's The Post, a machine that may not be swimming in awards wins right now but can generate nominations like no other. Plus, the Academy love Meryl, it's an easy bet. Another frontrunner whose chances have gone up since a Golden Globe win, many are predicting Saorise Ronan to take her fourth nomination in just ten years for Lady Bird. The film is meant to be a delight with Ronan proving the chief reason why and I can't wait to see her performance. My pick for most deserving snub though will have to go to Aubrey Plaza for Ingrid Goes West. The film itself is outstanding and is primarily held up by Plaza for her dazzling and complex portrayal of a character that shouldn't be as identifiable as she is. If she wasn't even nominated at the Globes for Best Actress in a Comedy, she has no chance at the Oscars but man does she deserve it.
Best Picture
Likely Bets:
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Unlikely but Worthy:
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Wind River
As with previous years, I'm predicting twice the amount of nominees as hypothetically, there could be up to ten nominees for best picture. Going through these in no particular order, I want to start with the stunning Call Me By Your Name. It is an engrossing and sensual film in every sense and after winning nothing from the Golden Globes, I've realised I need to push my love for it much more to many more people but a nomination still seems likely. Dunkirk is also a likely contender as Warner Brothers have re-released their film into American cinemas to really push how impressive a cinematic experience the film is. Three Billboards just won the Best Drama at the Golden Globes and while the Academy may not agree that it deserves the ultimate prize, don't be shocked if you see this brilliant and provocative film getting a nomination. Similarly, Lady Bird got Best Comedy and refuses to stop picking up awards. While it may not get Best Director as many are hoping, there's enough room in Best Picture for it to get some recognition. Spielberg's The Post will probably follow the trajectory of recent Spielberg-Hanks team up Bridge of Spies to get nominated but mainly seen by your dad. On the other side, The Shape of Water, a weirdo creature feature with a heart, keeps fighting to be recognised and while I haven't seen it, for the future of the Oscars, I hope it gets nominated. My two odd picks are absolute wish fulfilment but hey, let's get this over with. The Killing of a Sacred Deer is an absolute tour-de-force, refusing to lay up for a single second but it isn't for everyone and while it is unforgettable, most will not take that oppressive discomfort as a positive. Finally, Wind River has a small chance of nomination as Taylor Sheridan's superb Hell or High Water did get nominated last year despite all the odds. Wind River has the same air tight script and a similar outstanding sense of tension so it may be the wild card choice of this year but equally, it would be a real surprise.
Total correct guesses:
26 out of 33 Likely Bets
0 out of 10 Unlikely but Worthy
Every year, I get much too heavily invested in Awards Season and lose track of stuff like relationships, work and sometimes even eating. This year is no different and with the nominations for the 2018 Academy Awards (Oscars) being announced a week today, I decided to try my experienced yet highly unprofessional hand at predicting who will get nominated. For each category, I'm going to try and pick three safe bets but also throw in one that is less likely but deserves the nom. Come back in about six weeks if you're looking for final winner guesses but for now, lets speculate wildly on films, many of which I haven't seen yet.
Best Cinematography
Likely Bets:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Unlikely but Worthy:
Call Me By Your Name
This has been a beautiful looking year for film if nothing else and as far as I'm concerned, no film epitomised this more than Blade Runner 2049. Sure, the Academy don't usually like big budget movies but 2049 is highly unique and when you can screen cap any single shot from the film and find an image that will make your jaw drop, you're a shoo in for Cinematography. Also beautiful but with much more practical effects is Dunkirk, a film whose cinematography (among other things) draws the audience straight into the claustrophobic hell the characters exist in. In a similar vein, impressive creature feature The Shape of Water with its lush look at dingy environments stands a good chance of a nomination as it's a big awards contender and del Toro rarely makes a bad looking film. My unlikely but worthy choice here is Call Me By Your Name, pretty much because cinematography is one of the things about it you could over look when there is so much else going on. I attest that it is vital however as the film works (beautifully) because of the tone and much of that is done by the camera dancing around the lush Italian setting. Still, I don't think anything can really challenge Blade Runner but the Academy love an upset.
Best Original Screenplay
Likely Bets:
Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
The Post
Unlikely but Worthy:
Wind River
Like with cinematography, as far as I'm concerned there's only one clear choice for winner here but I have to pick three nominations, that's the nature of this post. The clearest frontrunner is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Martin McDonagh always writes great scripts that are outstandingly original and Three Billboards is no exception. It has a better chance at winning this prize because Three Billboards has been garnering bigger award buzz than McDonagh's other films so we can all keep our fingers crossed. Speaking of original, there wasn't a much more original movie last year than Get Out. Unfortunately, it may be too original for most of the major categories but screenplay is always where films like this get their day and for the sake of Peele's wonderful movie, I hope it's the case here. I'm yet to see The Post but I hear it's great and if Award shows love one thing, it's Spielberg. Finally, I'm really hoping there's some love for Taylor Sheridan's Wind River. Sure, it's not quite as excellent as Hell or High Water but it's another lean and impressive script from Sheridan that deserves as much acclaim.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Bets:
Molly's Game
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Unlikely but Worthy:
Blade Runner 2049
Currently, Aaron Sorkin is probably the closest that Hollywood has to a household name in screenwriting and with Molly's Game, he reminds us why. It's a film full of great speeches but the moment to moment dialogue is gripping too and is the reason the film works so well. Next, I'm hoping to see plenty of love for Call Me By Your Name. I'm not familiar with the source material but everything about the film works together to create an absolutely absorbing atmosphere and there's a few monologues scattered around that are shockingly powerful. Being an odd but likely addition to the party is The Disaster Artist, another film some may want to reward but can't find an appropriate way to. Admittedly, the original book is better but man if this isn't a film full of laughs that adapts what could sometimes be upsetting events into approachable ways. What really deserves the recognition but is unlikely to is Blade Runner 2049. That the intricate tapestry of a story is able to be weaved together as it is is only possible because of the script and I want someone to love it. Please.
Best Director
Likely Bets:
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg for The Post
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Unlikely but Worthy:
Darren Aronofsky for mother!
Alright, I've only seen one of the core picks here so this'll be fun. Del Toro apparently has his fingerprints all over The Shape of Water and it is for this reason that the film has delighted many, including the voters at the Golden Globes who gave him Best Director. Indeed, it is this aspect that makes me want to see it so much because no one else will make big films this weird. Steven Spielberg is another choice who feels fairly obvious despite the fact I haven't seen The Post. Spielberg is a perennial favourite of the Oscars and if this follows the trajectory of fellow Tom Hanks vehicle Bridge of Spies, it'll get the nomination. One director who I can speak for is Christopher Nolan who made one of his best films yet with Dunkirk. The decision to film most of the film practically was all his and makes a visceral experience that deserves recognition. Now, due to the sheer polarising nature of this film (like, way more so than The Last Jedi) a nomination seems near impossible but I would love to see Darren Aronofsky get nominated for mother!. It's a challenging film and there are directorial decisions made that are brave but mostly, any director who can stage a final third of the film like here deserves plenty of accolades thrown their way.
Best Supporting Actor
Likely Bets:
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name
Unlikely but Worthy:
Barry Keoghan for The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Alright, we're finally in categories that people care about, so much so that this may be the first one you're actually properly reading. One big frontrunner right now is Willem Dafoe for his excellent turn in the wonderful The Florida Project. As the manager of the motel where the film is set, he brings warmth to a character who could easily be unlikable and it is in his moments of conflict where the film has its biggest triumphs. A more unpredictable performance comes from the always excellent Sam Rockwell as the racist cop in Three Billboards. My hope is that this is a sort of "lifetime achievement" award for all the good but unrecognised work in films like Moon and Seven Psychopaths although equally, Rockwell opens up a window into this character that it's hard to imagine any other actor offering, already picking up a Golden Globe for his role. Equally though, Michael Stuhlbarg is just wonderful in Call Me By Your Name. There's not a poor element to the film and he is no exception with his ending monologue being one of great power. One actor who stands very little chance of a nomination but completely deserves it is Barry Keoghan for The Killing of a Sacred Deer. Most people will recognise him from Dunkirk but here, he is terrifying. There's just something about the way he glares at the characters and audience that never failed to terrify me.
Best Supporting Actress
Likely Bets:
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
Unlikely but Worthy:
Lois Smith for Marjorie Prime
Literally seen none of the frontrunners here so this will be quick. I, Tonya is something of an outsider bet for all but supporting actress with Allison Janney giving what is meant to be one of her best ever performances. Lady Bird, however, is a film with a hell of a lot of buzz and Laurie Metcalf is garnering much of it. Both she and Janney play mothers of the central characters and while Janney is getting acclaim for how far she takes it, Metcalf is winning people over for a more naturalistic take. Janney did win the Golden Globe though so she has the upper hand right now. In a non-mother supporting role is Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water who many are saying is just as delightful as her Oscar nominated turn in Hidden Figures. For my weird pick, I'm going for a film that you probably haven't heard of and definitely haven't seen (unless your name is Will Wightman, hey bud, hope you made it this far) with Lois Smith's performance in Marjorie Prime. She is the heart of the film and gives one of the most believable portrayals of Alzheimers disease that I've ever seen. Track down the film, it's a little slow but a thought provoking watch and one where the performances are guaranteed to delight.
Best Actor
Likely Bets:
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks for The Post
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Unlikely but Worthy:
Jeremy Renner for Wind River
There's one major frontrunner as of right now but there's still plenty of interesting challengers in the race for Best Actor. Chief among them is Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, the film he has said will be his last. That fact alone puts him in contention but many are saying that he is absolutely astounding in this film, giving one last reminder of why he's considered one of the greatest actors ever. Speaking of, Tom Hanks stands a great chance at nomination for The Post, even if a win seems unlikely. He's always great and I think it's a safe bet to say that The Post will be no exception for him. The one to beat right now though is Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. The film itself is pretty decent but is made notable by Oldman's astonishing portrayal of Winston Churchill. He has always been one of the greatest working actors for the many decades he's been working and Darkest Hour seems to be the peak of that. Someone who is unfortunately getting looked over though is Jeremy Renner for the excellent Wind River. Admittedly, he was a little better in The Hurt Locker but this is still an excellent performance from Renner, balancing multiple sides that we don't truly appreciate until looking back over the movie. It's subtle and that may be the downfall of the performance as many simply overlook it. Wind River deserves better, as does Renner and you should seek it out.
Best Actress
Likely Bets:
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep for The Post
Saorise Ronan for Lady Bird
Unlikely but Worthy:
Aubrey Plaza for Ingrid Goes West
When it comes to winners, this is probably now a two horse race but as we currently stand, that doesn't matter, I just need three nominees to predict to sound smart. Frances McDormand is the only one whose performance I've actually seen and I can definitely vouch for her. She's a tornado, blowing through a town and causing rampant destruction with her multi-layered performance as the mother of a murdered daughter that will occasionally make you question your allegiance. It also doesn't hurt that she got the Golden Globe for it last week. Meryl Streep will get a nomination for sure in Steven Spielberg's The Post, a machine that may not be swimming in awards wins right now but can generate nominations like no other. Plus, the Academy love Meryl, it's an easy bet. Another frontrunner whose chances have gone up since a Golden Globe win, many are predicting Saorise Ronan to take her fourth nomination in just ten years for Lady Bird. The film is meant to be a delight with Ronan proving the chief reason why and I can't wait to see her performance. My pick for most deserving snub though will have to go to Aubrey Plaza for Ingrid Goes West. The film itself is outstanding and is primarily held up by Plaza for her dazzling and complex portrayal of a character that shouldn't be as identifiable as she is. If she wasn't even nominated at the Globes for Best Actress in a Comedy, she has no chance at the Oscars but man does she deserve it.
Best Picture
Likely Bets:
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Unlikely but Worthy:
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Wind River
As with previous years, I'm predicting twice the amount of nominees as hypothetically, there could be up to ten nominees for best picture. Going through these in no particular order, I want to start with the stunning Call Me By Your Name. It is an engrossing and sensual film in every sense and after winning nothing from the Golden Globes, I've realised I need to push my love for it much more to many more people but a nomination still seems likely. Dunkirk is also a likely contender as Warner Brothers have re-released their film into American cinemas to really push how impressive a cinematic experience the film is. Three Billboards just won the Best Drama at the Golden Globes and while the Academy may not agree that it deserves the ultimate prize, don't be shocked if you see this brilliant and provocative film getting a nomination. Similarly, Lady Bird got Best Comedy and refuses to stop picking up awards. While it may not get Best Director as many are hoping, there's enough room in Best Picture for it to get some recognition. Spielberg's The Post will probably follow the trajectory of recent Spielberg-Hanks team up Bridge of Spies to get nominated but mainly seen by your dad. On the other side, The Shape of Water, a weirdo creature feature with a heart, keeps fighting to be recognised and while I haven't seen it, for the future of the Oscars, I hope it gets nominated. My two odd picks are absolute wish fulfilment but hey, let's get this over with. The Killing of a Sacred Deer is an absolute tour-de-force, refusing to lay up for a single second but it isn't for everyone and while it is unforgettable, most will not take that oppressive discomfort as a positive. Finally, Wind River has a small chance of nomination as Taylor Sheridan's superb Hell or High Water did get nominated last year despite all the odds. Wind River has the same air tight script and a similar outstanding sense of tension so it may be the wild card choice of this year but equally, it would be a real surprise.
Total correct guesses:
26 out of 33 Likely Bets
0 out of 10 Unlikely but Worthy
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