Oscars 2017- Final Winner predictions
After the last minute rush to go see every Oscar film and pushing this list back to a Thursday, my final predictions are here. This year, I've seen more of the big name nominees than ever before which I hope makes my predictions more accurate. Still, there are some I haven't seen and there is no guaranteed way of guessing everything correctly. With that in mind though, here are my predictions for what will win and what I think should actually end up winning. Those may cross over occasionally but I'm going to try and keep them different.
Best Original Song:
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) performed by Emma Stone from La La Land
Can't Stop the Feeling performed by Justin Timberlake from Trolls
The Empty Chair performed by Sting from Jim: The James Foley Story
Should Win:How Far I'll Go performed by Auli'i Cravalho from Moana
Will Win: City of Stars performed by Ryan Gosling from La La Land
Starting with a category I all of a sudden care about this year, Best Original Song. I'll start by dismissing Trolls, there is no way it will get the award. Sure, it's big name Justin Timberlake and the song was one of the most popular of last year but it's also not very good aside from the fact it's kind of catchy. I hadn't heard of Jim: The James Foley Story before I heard the nominations but I listened to the song and then watched the documentary after it. The song is pretty good, if a tad derivative of Candle in the Wind but the documentary is an incredibly powerful film and really deserves more recognition. It will be totally ignored though because no one has heard of the film and it is not an easy watch. My personal choice for best of the bunch is How Far I'll Go from the Moana soundtrack because I absolutely love the film and would love for it to get an award. The real battle though is La La Land against La La Land. Audition is a powerful song but one that is largely a downer. The likeliest choice is City of Stars, a song that has already grabbed a Golden Globe and in fairness, it's a superb track that is only hampered by how short it is. There is a small chance that the two La La Land songs will cancel each other out and Moana will sweep in but expect a two horse race, pulling the chariot of La La Land to victory.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Should Win: Arrival
Will Win: Moonlight
Compared to the Original Screenplay category, the Adapted Screenplay feels a bit lacking with only two standouts in what I feel is a series of nominations that are fairly pedestrian. Fences definitely doesn't deserve the award as the film is barely an adaptation of the play. Nearly every moment in the film feels like it was taken straight from the stage and while I think this film shows what a good writer August Wilson was, it doesn't deserve the Oscar. Hidden Figures is one of my least favourite films nominated for the big awards this year and while the story it tells is interesting, it's not entirely compelling at all times and is very predictable and safe. Lion gets a bit more credit for wrestling with a tricky concept of having to split the film into two halves. Admittedly, it doesn't entirely stick the landing but it makes for an entertaining time that comes together well at the end. My personal choice for this award would go to Arrival as it is intelligent almost beyond belief. Despite having not read the short story it is based on, just the scope of what the screenwriter had to grapple with and how it came across on screen in a way that wasn't just competent but fully engrossing, makes Arrival a worthy winner. The film that is probably going to take this award though is Moonlight and I really have no problem with that. There are few big moments in Moonlight and the few examples I can think of actually pale in comparison to the smaller, more intimate moments. You aren't going to see the flair of certain scripts here but that's why it deserves credit.
Best Original Screenplay
La La Land
The Lobster
20th Century Women
Should Win: Hell or High Water
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Original scripts can often lead to some of the most exciting and interesting films of the entire award show and it's probably the area of the Oscars where the most interesting films get awarded, like Ex Machina last year. This year, there are some exceptional films to run for this prize. The weirdest film up for the award is The Lobster and that a film so odd can get an award is enough, although the oddball dialogue and bizarre scenarios deserve recognition. A recent favourite of mine, 20th Century Women, is also up for this award and won't get the award since it's very low presence. Personally though, I loved the character's that were built, the little moments of comedy and the capturing of this time out of time, it's just a shame that this is the only nomination for the film. La La Land is also up for this award and while the Academy may just throw as many awards as possible at it, this is an award usually given to films ignored elsewhere. The script is decent but honestly, it is probably one of the films weaker elements, even if the nomination is deserved just to make up for the snubbing of Whiplash. My choice for the best script would very easily be Hell or High Water. The directing and screenplay work in tandem and the script is utterly water tight. If I'm honest, it is one of my all time favourite scripts. However, as I said, this award usually goes to films ignored elsewhere and if there's one film that may miss out on a few awards this year, it's Manchester by the Sea. Don't get me wrong, the script is incredible and delivers sucker punch after sucker punch but it is going to get it because it's a clearly well made script and because the film is going to miss out on other awards it deserves.
Best Animated Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Should Win: Moana
Will Win: Zootopia
Animation has had yet another stellar year and while we haven't quite returned to the heights of last years contenders (Inside Out and Anomalisa being some of the best films in years), there has been some fantastic animation on display. I haven't seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini seeing as neither are out yet and while both look beautifully animated from their trailers, they're not going to get the award because they're also foreign language films. Kubo and the Two Strings is a great animated film and possibly the film here with the best animation. It would be nice to see it get nominated but it isn't going to get the award for being fairly untraditional in style, even if a shock BAFTA win has increased the odds. Of the two remaining players, my favourite is Moana, a heartwarming tale of finding who you are with amazing animation and some of the best songs Disney have done in years. Really though, the winner people have been predicting since March and the near certain pick is Zootopia. Not only is the animation great, it tells a really important message about acceptance that, especially at a time like this, is going to be appreciated by the Academy. It doesn't hurt that the film is also incredibly funny and has Shakira's best song in years.
Best Cinematography
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Should Win: Arrival
Will Win: La La Land
Holy shit, what a year for beautiful looking movies. Most of the films nominated here are highly worthy candidates and it should also speak volumes that stunners like Nocturnal Animals, Midnight Special and The Neon Demon all got snubbed. I'll start by addressing the elephant in the room which is Lion. It is a nice looking film and there are some great shots but its place on this nomination list feels stolen from a worthier competitor. Moonlight is one film that is often great to look at but also uses cinematography in practical and efficient ways, often lending scenes a greater tenderness than they could otherwise have been given. Bonus points for scenes coated in neon though. Cinematography is also the category where Silence picks up its only nomination and while the film should have picked up more, it really deserves this award. As a scene that centers on much cruelty, Scorcese shoots it in a way that makes it actually look good. My personal pick for cinematography is Arrival because it does every a well shot film should. Arrival is a film that can look amazing (see the framing of the contact scenes or the initial shot of the alien ship) but mainly uses cinematography to tell the highly emotional story, even hinting towards many things that are only revealed on a second watch. There is only going to be one winner though and, as with so many of the other categories, that is La La Land. Cinematography is a difficult thing to judge for most people so they will go for the most overtly beautiful film and La La Land fits that (in regards to mainstream films anyway). I will still be quite happy if La La Land wins the award here, considering the exciting and confident splashing of colour, that deep purple night sky and the shot of Emma Stone walking through a frozen crowd at the party, a firm contender for one of my favourite shots ever.
Best Director
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonnergan for Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Should Win: Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Will Win: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
There have been some fantastic shows of talent from directors this year and while they aren't the prolific crowd of veterans from most years, they don't have to be to have made five of the best films of the year. Mel Gibson makes his return with Hacksaw Ridge and it is a film that is utterly exhilarating, start to finish. He makes the action unforgettable but to his credit, also makes the quiet moments just as enjoyable. With Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonnergan has at least shown me that I should have heard of and watched much more of his work as he is a direct who masters quiet power. Sure, there are big, showy moments but as with everyone else in the cast, Lonnergan is a director who truly understands silent fury. Equally talented at bringing out the subtle emotion is Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. Again, I knew little about Jenkins before the film but he shows such control over every inch of this film and that is so impressive to witness. When it came to picking my choice for favourite, I actually had a fairly difficult choice but eventually went for Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. Without saying too much, it's a tricky narrative to grapple with but I genuinely feel like Villeneuve not only masters the narrative but also makes his best film yet. The most likely winner though, and one I totally support, will be Damien Chazelle for La La Land. Technically, this is a highly complex film to make and even detractors admit that Chazelle does superb work here. If you don't like it though, just consider it an overdue award for Whiplash.
Best Supporting Actor
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
Dev Patel for Lion
Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals
Should Win: Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Mahershalla Ali for Moonlight
Another incredibly strong category this year, the supporting actors of this years greatest films have really pulled their own weight. I'll start with a shock instantly, Jeff Bridges won't win and I don't think he's most deserving. In Hell or High Water, he gives what is one of his best performances and anchors the side of the film who are on the law but he's just up against some amazing competition. Dev Patel is good in Lion and did win the BAFTA for his performance but I think he's the weakest of this bunch. Flying the single flag for Nocturnal Animals at the Oscars is Michael Shannon. He is creepy and makes the story in the narrative crackle with energy. The actor who I think most deserves this award though is Lucas Hedges for his highly underrated performance in Manchester by the Sea. Casey Affleck has deservedly got a lot of attention for his role (back to that in a second) but Hedges holds his own with the rest of the cast, delivering one of the strongest scenes of the year with the "fridge" scene. The clear winner though is Mahershala Ali for Moonlight. He may only be in it for the first third but damn if he doesn't own it. Every second he is on screen he makes his presence known and even when he isn't, his presence seeps into the scenes. There's also a good chance he'll win because he'd be the first Muslim to win an Oscar and diversity is in this year.
Best Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Should Win: Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis for Fences
While acting categories are usually fairly competitive, this one has been dwarfed by a certain actress whose face is above these words. Naomie Harris is the one constant in Moonlight and is amazing for the range she covers and the depths of sadness she can draw from, making it certainly her best performance. Nicole Kidman is pretty good in Lion and has some of the best scenes in the film, although I wouldn't call it an Oscar worthy performance. Also not at quite the level of Oscar worthy is Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures. The film is generically feel good and while the performances are fine, they aren't that great either and Spencer doesn't even give the best performance of the film (Janelle Monae does that here but then also does even better in Moonlight). Despite the lack of time she has in the film, my choice would absolutely be Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea. She bookends the film but the range she covers is astounding and she has two of the most powerful scenes of any nominated film. As I said earlier though, this is Viola Davis' award for sure, largely because this is a lead actress role. Fences is a very showy film for actors and Davis earns it, doing (as Honest Trailers pointed out) everything from quiet acting, loud acting and snot acting, see above.
Best Actor
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington for Fences
Should Win and Will Win: Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor has been a category that has also pulled out all the stops this year with not a single dud nomination. Andrew Garfield stuns in his second fantastic performance of the year and he totally inhabits the role. For his role to work, you just have to not see him as Spider-Man and he passed that test with flying colours. A performance that I adore but that definitely isn't an Oscar performance is Ryan Gosling in La La Land. I adore his role in it and he had to learn the piano in three months but it isn't the best performance here by far. The most surprising nomination on this list was a surprise delight, Viggoe Mortensen for Captain Fantastic. While most people know him from Lord of the Rings, this film shows his range as a father who has to deal with the death of his wife and his kids growing up into beings beyond his control in a role many have unfortunately missed. The closest thing to a competitor is Denzel Washington for Fences, As mentioned a few times now, it's a film for acting, not a solid film and Denzel does do a good job, just not quite the best. The honour of best performance of the bunch is clearly Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea, a performance that is actually one of the best I have ever seen. The highest credit I can give the performance is that it feels real. It doesn't feel like great acting like some of the other performances here, it feels like we're watching a real human with more layers to him than an onion/Shrek. If you haven't seen the film, honestly, it's worth it just for his performance.
Best Actress
Isabelle Hupert for Elle
Ruth Negga for Loving
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
Should Win: Natalie Portman for Jackie
Will Win: Emma Stone for La La Land
I've found the Best Actress category this year to be largely disappointing due to the snubbing of Amy Adams for career best work (in either Arrival or Nocturnal Animals) and Annette Benning for equally wonderful work in 20th Century Women but there are still some great performances here. Full disclosure, I haven't seen Elle yet because it isn't out and I didn't see Florence Foster Jenkins because it didn't interest me that much so I can't really comment on those performances. Huppert getting nominated alone was a near miracle so I don't think a win is expected and Streep was clearly just nominated because the Academy always love her and she was hot off her roasting session with Mr President himself. I hear both are great though. Ruth Negga gave a great turn in Loving even if it was Jeff Nichols' lesser film of the year. She gives moments a quiet, dignified power, although with her performance earning praise, I feel bad for Joel Edgerton who surely gave the better performance of the two. Still, it's a powerful role in an important film and Negga did well. After doing some research when I'd watched Jackie, it turns out I might be the only person who loved that film, through and through, a film which boasts an all time best Natalie Portman at the core. Some criticise the accent and say it feels off but for me, it helped transport me to the world of the sixties, a world I was obviously not around for and I think that speaks to the sheer power of her role. Without a doubt though, the Oscar will go to Emma Stone and I think that's a shame. Not because I don't think she's great or did nothing in La La Land, I think she worked really hard on that film and did an amazing job. I just don't think it's quite as good a performance as some of the others as, aside from the singing and dancing, she largely just plays herself. I'd love to see a shock upset here but La La Land will be film of the night and this will be one of the jewels in the crown.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Should Win: Hell or High Water
Will Win: La La Land
Here we finally are, the big one and the one you probably skipped past all the others to read, which is fair enough, I know most people don't care about cinematography. Anyway, I'll run down the list now, it's what you're here for. Arrival is the single smartest film nominated here but is also a genre film so has no chance of winning, a damn shame. Fences is less a film, more a filmed play and all of the themes it deals with are dealt with much more effectively by Moonlight. Hacksaw Ridge is a damn fine action film with some great character building work in the first half but it's too much to ask for Mel Gibson to win something when Hollywood have only just accepted him back. Hidden Figures is my least favourite film here as its preachy and drags more than a two hour film should but many others like it and it is basic feel good "fun" if institutional racism and sexism can be called fun. Lion is another slightly overrated film although it tells an interesting story and one that has some deep emotional resonance at the end. Manchester by the Sea is a superb exercise in restraint and in a weaker year it would have it but unfortunately, it is being consistently overlooked. Moonlight instead takes the subtle emotional depths charge and does everything Fences does but better, subtler and more beautiful, while also dealing with homosexuality in tender ways and is the strongest rival for the current favourite. My personal favourite film here should be no shock, it's Hell or High Water. It is taught, intense and pure cinema at its finest but its also way too good for Best Picture so I'm just happy for the nomination truth be told. At this point, days before the ceremony, the clear winner still seems to be the inescapable La La Land. It's a musical, it's about Hollywood and it is directed by one of the greatest up and coming stars of the moment, big favourites for the Academy. I do love La La Land and will be as happy as I am unsurprised if it wins but I would love for any of Hell or High Water, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival to win. If anything, the Oscars this year have shown how great film can be and it bodes well for the next year, even if Damien Chazelle's next film is now a few years off.
Edit: So, I actually got every single prediction for this year right, excluding Best Picture, although to be fair, I was right for two minutes. Much as I want to chalk that up as a win, I can't so we'll have to say it's only 10/11 right
Best Original Song:
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) performed by Emma Stone from La La Land
Can't Stop the Feeling performed by Justin Timberlake from Trolls
The Empty Chair performed by Sting from Jim: The James Foley Story
Should Win:How Far I'll Go performed by Auli'i Cravalho from Moana
Will Win: City of Stars performed by Ryan Gosling from La La Land
Starting with a category I all of a sudden care about this year, Best Original Song. I'll start by dismissing Trolls, there is no way it will get the award. Sure, it's big name Justin Timberlake and the song was one of the most popular of last year but it's also not very good aside from the fact it's kind of catchy. I hadn't heard of Jim: The James Foley Story before I heard the nominations but I listened to the song and then watched the documentary after it. The song is pretty good, if a tad derivative of Candle in the Wind but the documentary is an incredibly powerful film and really deserves more recognition. It will be totally ignored though because no one has heard of the film and it is not an easy watch. My personal choice for best of the bunch is How Far I'll Go from the Moana soundtrack because I absolutely love the film and would love for it to get an award. The real battle though is La La Land against La La Land. Audition is a powerful song but one that is largely a downer. The likeliest choice is City of Stars, a song that has already grabbed a Golden Globe and in fairness, it's a superb track that is only hampered by how short it is. There is a small chance that the two La La Land songs will cancel each other out and Moana will sweep in but expect a two horse race, pulling the chariot of La La Land to victory.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Should Win: Arrival
Will Win: Moonlight
Compared to the Original Screenplay category, the Adapted Screenplay feels a bit lacking with only two standouts in what I feel is a series of nominations that are fairly pedestrian. Fences definitely doesn't deserve the award as the film is barely an adaptation of the play. Nearly every moment in the film feels like it was taken straight from the stage and while I think this film shows what a good writer August Wilson was, it doesn't deserve the Oscar. Hidden Figures is one of my least favourite films nominated for the big awards this year and while the story it tells is interesting, it's not entirely compelling at all times and is very predictable and safe. Lion gets a bit more credit for wrestling with a tricky concept of having to split the film into two halves. Admittedly, it doesn't entirely stick the landing but it makes for an entertaining time that comes together well at the end. My personal choice for this award would go to Arrival as it is intelligent almost beyond belief. Despite having not read the short story it is based on, just the scope of what the screenwriter had to grapple with and how it came across on screen in a way that wasn't just competent but fully engrossing, makes Arrival a worthy winner. The film that is probably going to take this award though is Moonlight and I really have no problem with that. There are few big moments in Moonlight and the few examples I can think of actually pale in comparison to the smaller, more intimate moments. You aren't going to see the flair of certain scripts here but that's why it deserves credit.
Best Original Screenplay
La La Land
The Lobster
20th Century Women
Should Win: Hell or High Water
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Original scripts can often lead to some of the most exciting and interesting films of the entire award show and it's probably the area of the Oscars where the most interesting films get awarded, like Ex Machina last year. This year, there are some exceptional films to run for this prize. The weirdest film up for the award is The Lobster and that a film so odd can get an award is enough, although the oddball dialogue and bizarre scenarios deserve recognition. A recent favourite of mine, 20th Century Women, is also up for this award and won't get the award since it's very low presence. Personally though, I loved the character's that were built, the little moments of comedy and the capturing of this time out of time, it's just a shame that this is the only nomination for the film. La La Land is also up for this award and while the Academy may just throw as many awards as possible at it, this is an award usually given to films ignored elsewhere. The script is decent but honestly, it is probably one of the films weaker elements, even if the nomination is deserved just to make up for the snubbing of Whiplash. My choice for the best script would very easily be Hell or High Water. The directing and screenplay work in tandem and the script is utterly water tight. If I'm honest, it is one of my all time favourite scripts. However, as I said, this award usually goes to films ignored elsewhere and if there's one film that may miss out on a few awards this year, it's Manchester by the Sea. Don't get me wrong, the script is incredible and delivers sucker punch after sucker punch but it is going to get it because it's a clearly well made script and because the film is going to miss out on other awards it deserves.
Best Animated Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Should Win: Moana
Will Win: Zootopia
Animation has had yet another stellar year and while we haven't quite returned to the heights of last years contenders (Inside Out and Anomalisa being some of the best films in years), there has been some fantastic animation on display. I haven't seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini seeing as neither are out yet and while both look beautifully animated from their trailers, they're not going to get the award because they're also foreign language films. Kubo and the Two Strings is a great animated film and possibly the film here with the best animation. It would be nice to see it get nominated but it isn't going to get the award for being fairly untraditional in style, even if a shock BAFTA win has increased the odds. Of the two remaining players, my favourite is Moana, a heartwarming tale of finding who you are with amazing animation and some of the best songs Disney have done in years. Really though, the winner people have been predicting since March and the near certain pick is Zootopia. Not only is the animation great, it tells a really important message about acceptance that, especially at a time like this, is going to be appreciated by the Academy. It doesn't hurt that the film is also incredibly funny and has Shakira's best song in years.
Best Cinematography
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Should Win: Arrival
Will Win: La La Land
Holy shit, what a year for beautiful looking movies. Most of the films nominated here are highly worthy candidates and it should also speak volumes that stunners like Nocturnal Animals, Midnight Special and The Neon Demon all got snubbed. I'll start by addressing the elephant in the room which is Lion. It is a nice looking film and there are some great shots but its place on this nomination list feels stolen from a worthier competitor. Moonlight is one film that is often great to look at but also uses cinematography in practical and efficient ways, often lending scenes a greater tenderness than they could otherwise have been given. Bonus points for scenes coated in neon though. Cinematography is also the category where Silence picks up its only nomination and while the film should have picked up more, it really deserves this award. As a scene that centers on much cruelty, Scorcese shoots it in a way that makes it actually look good. My personal pick for cinematography is Arrival because it does every a well shot film should. Arrival is a film that can look amazing (see the framing of the contact scenes or the initial shot of the alien ship) but mainly uses cinematography to tell the highly emotional story, even hinting towards many things that are only revealed on a second watch. There is only going to be one winner though and, as with so many of the other categories, that is La La Land. Cinematography is a difficult thing to judge for most people so they will go for the most overtly beautiful film and La La Land fits that (in regards to mainstream films anyway). I will still be quite happy if La La Land wins the award here, considering the exciting and confident splashing of colour, that deep purple night sky and the shot of Emma Stone walking through a frozen crowd at the party, a firm contender for one of my favourite shots ever.
Best Director
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonnergan for Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Should Win: Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Will Win: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
There have been some fantastic shows of talent from directors this year and while they aren't the prolific crowd of veterans from most years, they don't have to be to have made five of the best films of the year. Mel Gibson makes his return with Hacksaw Ridge and it is a film that is utterly exhilarating, start to finish. He makes the action unforgettable but to his credit, also makes the quiet moments just as enjoyable. With Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonnergan has at least shown me that I should have heard of and watched much more of his work as he is a direct who masters quiet power. Sure, there are big, showy moments but as with everyone else in the cast, Lonnergan is a director who truly understands silent fury. Equally talented at bringing out the subtle emotion is Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. Again, I knew little about Jenkins before the film but he shows such control over every inch of this film and that is so impressive to witness. When it came to picking my choice for favourite, I actually had a fairly difficult choice but eventually went for Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. Without saying too much, it's a tricky narrative to grapple with but I genuinely feel like Villeneuve not only masters the narrative but also makes his best film yet. The most likely winner though, and one I totally support, will be Damien Chazelle for La La Land. Technically, this is a highly complex film to make and even detractors admit that Chazelle does superb work here. If you don't like it though, just consider it an overdue award for Whiplash.
Best Supporting Actor
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
Dev Patel for Lion
Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals
Should Win: Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Mahershalla Ali for Moonlight
Another incredibly strong category this year, the supporting actors of this years greatest films have really pulled their own weight. I'll start with a shock instantly, Jeff Bridges won't win and I don't think he's most deserving. In Hell or High Water, he gives what is one of his best performances and anchors the side of the film who are on the law but he's just up against some amazing competition. Dev Patel is good in Lion and did win the BAFTA for his performance but I think he's the weakest of this bunch. Flying the single flag for Nocturnal Animals at the Oscars is Michael Shannon. He is creepy and makes the story in the narrative crackle with energy. The actor who I think most deserves this award though is Lucas Hedges for his highly underrated performance in Manchester by the Sea. Casey Affleck has deservedly got a lot of attention for his role (back to that in a second) but Hedges holds his own with the rest of the cast, delivering one of the strongest scenes of the year with the "fridge" scene. The clear winner though is Mahershala Ali for Moonlight. He may only be in it for the first third but damn if he doesn't own it. Every second he is on screen he makes his presence known and even when he isn't, his presence seeps into the scenes. There's also a good chance he'll win because he'd be the first Muslim to win an Oscar and diversity is in this year.
Best Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Should Win: Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis for Fences
While acting categories are usually fairly competitive, this one has been dwarfed by a certain actress whose face is above these words. Naomie Harris is the one constant in Moonlight and is amazing for the range she covers and the depths of sadness she can draw from, making it certainly her best performance. Nicole Kidman is pretty good in Lion and has some of the best scenes in the film, although I wouldn't call it an Oscar worthy performance. Also not at quite the level of Oscar worthy is Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures. The film is generically feel good and while the performances are fine, they aren't that great either and Spencer doesn't even give the best performance of the film (Janelle Monae does that here but then also does even better in Moonlight). Despite the lack of time she has in the film, my choice would absolutely be Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea. She bookends the film but the range she covers is astounding and she has two of the most powerful scenes of any nominated film. As I said earlier though, this is Viola Davis' award for sure, largely because this is a lead actress role. Fences is a very showy film for actors and Davis earns it, doing (as Honest Trailers pointed out) everything from quiet acting, loud acting and snot acting, see above.
Best Actor
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington for Fences
Should Win and Will Win: Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor has been a category that has also pulled out all the stops this year with not a single dud nomination. Andrew Garfield stuns in his second fantastic performance of the year and he totally inhabits the role. For his role to work, you just have to not see him as Spider-Man and he passed that test with flying colours. A performance that I adore but that definitely isn't an Oscar performance is Ryan Gosling in La La Land. I adore his role in it and he had to learn the piano in three months but it isn't the best performance here by far. The most surprising nomination on this list was a surprise delight, Viggoe Mortensen for Captain Fantastic. While most people know him from Lord of the Rings, this film shows his range as a father who has to deal with the death of his wife and his kids growing up into beings beyond his control in a role many have unfortunately missed. The closest thing to a competitor is Denzel Washington for Fences, As mentioned a few times now, it's a film for acting, not a solid film and Denzel does do a good job, just not quite the best. The honour of best performance of the bunch is clearly Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea, a performance that is actually one of the best I have ever seen. The highest credit I can give the performance is that it feels real. It doesn't feel like great acting like some of the other performances here, it feels like we're watching a real human with more layers to him than an onion/Shrek. If you haven't seen the film, honestly, it's worth it just for his performance.
Best Actress
Isabelle Hupert for Elle
Ruth Negga for Loving
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
Should Win: Natalie Portman for Jackie
Will Win: Emma Stone for La La Land
I've found the Best Actress category this year to be largely disappointing due to the snubbing of Amy Adams for career best work (in either Arrival or Nocturnal Animals) and Annette Benning for equally wonderful work in 20th Century Women but there are still some great performances here. Full disclosure, I haven't seen Elle yet because it isn't out and I didn't see Florence Foster Jenkins because it didn't interest me that much so I can't really comment on those performances. Huppert getting nominated alone was a near miracle so I don't think a win is expected and Streep was clearly just nominated because the Academy always love her and she was hot off her roasting session with Mr President himself. I hear both are great though. Ruth Negga gave a great turn in Loving even if it was Jeff Nichols' lesser film of the year. She gives moments a quiet, dignified power, although with her performance earning praise, I feel bad for Joel Edgerton who surely gave the better performance of the two. Still, it's a powerful role in an important film and Negga did well. After doing some research when I'd watched Jackie, it turns out I might be the only person who loved that film, through and through, a film which boasts an all time best Natalie Portman at the core. Some criticise the accent and say it feels off but for me, it helped transport me to the world of the sixties, a world I was obviously not around for and I think that speaks to the sheer power of her role. Without a doubt though, the Oscar will go to Emma Stone and I think that's a shame. Not because I don't think she's great or did nothing in La La Land, I think she worked really hard on that film and did an amazing job. I just don't think it's quite as good a performance as some of the others as, aside from the singing and dancing, she largely just plays herself. I'd love to see a shock upset here but La La Land will be film of the night and this will be one of the jewels in the crown.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Should Win: Hell or High Water
Will Win: La La Land
Here we finally are, the big one and the one you probably skipped past all the others to read, which is fair enough, I know most people don't care about cinematography. Anyway, I'll run down the list now, it's what you're here for. Arrival is the single smartest film nominated here but is also a genre film so has no chance of winning, a damn shame. Fences is less a film, more a filmed play and all of the themes it deals with are dealt with much more effectively by Moonlight. Hacksaw Ridge is a damn fine action film with some great character building work in the first half but it's too much to ask for Mel Gibson to win something when Hollywood have only just accepted him back. Hidden Figures is my least favourite film here as its preachy and drags more than a two hour film should but many others like it and it is basic feel good "fun" if institutional racism and sexism can be called fun. Lion is another slightly overrated film although it tells an interesting story and one that has some deep emotional resonance at the end. Manchester by the Sea is a superb exercise in restraint and in a weaker year it would have it but unfortunately, it is being consistently overlooked. Moonlight instead takes the subtle emotional depths charge and does everything Fences does but better, subtler and more beautiful, while also dealing with homosexuality in tender ways and is the strongest rival for the current favourite. My personal favourite film here should be no shock, it's Hell or High Water. It is taught, intense and pure cinema at its finest but its also way too good for Best Picture so I'm just happy for the nomination truth be told. At this point, days before the ceremony, the clear winner still seems to be the inescapable La La Land. It's a musical, it's about Hollywood and it is directed by one of the greatest up and coming stars of the moment, big favourites for the Academy. I do love La La Land and will be as happy as I am unsurprised if it wins but I would love for any of Hell or High Water, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival to win. If anything, the Oscars this year have shown how great film can be and it bodes well for the next year, even if Damien Chazelle's next film is now a few years off.
Edit: So, I actually got every single prediction for this year right, excluding Best Picture, although to be fair, I was right for two minutes. Much as I want to chalk that up as a win, I can't so we'll have to say it's only 10/11 right
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